As UK Study Visas Continue to Drop, Institutions Should Focus on Recruiting From These Emerging Student Populations

The UK Home Office released its latest international education data last week and, as expected, the number of sponsored study visas issued to main applicants continued to decline through June. This follows a trend we’ve been observing since the UK’s previous government announced restrictions on dependants. But while demand overall is down, several emerging student populations are bucking this developing trend.

Today, we’re unpacking the latest study visa trends in the UK. Read on to discover the degree to which demand has fallen, including among some of the UK’s largest student populations, and where institutions may want to consider allocating their recruitment resources moving forward.

Study Visas to the UK Drop by 13% for Year Ending June 2024

The UK issued over 432,000 sponsored study visas to main applicant international students for the year ending June 2024. This represents a 13% decline from the previous year. The chart below allows you to compare the number of study visas issued for both the year ending June and just the first half of the calendar year (January through June):

It’s important to contextualize that the YOY drop for the year ending June 2024 is likely the tip of the iceberg. That’s because the bulk of sponsored study visas are issued during Q3. For each of the calendar years 2021 through 2023, over 65% of all study visas were issued from July through September. As such, the fall data release will allow us to better measure the full impact of the dependants policy change.

However, we can start to understand the effect this policy change has had by comparing the first half of the 2024 calendar year with the year ending in June data. For the months of January through June, the UK issued over 82,000 sponsored study visas to main applicants in 2024. This was 23% fewer than that same period in 2023, meaning that the decline in issued visas during H1 was 10 percentage points higher than the year ending June.

Increased Study Visa Refusals Does Not Account For Overall Dip

The number of study visa refusals doubled for both the year ending June and H1 2024 compared to the same periods in 2023.³ However, refusal rates remained low, with only 4% of main applicants refused a sponsored study visa for the year ending June 2024. The refusal rate was 6% for H1.

Refusals, then, played only a minimal role in the overall dip in student visas issued in 2024. Indeed, the number of processed applications for sponsored study main applicants in the year ending June 2024 dropped by 11% over 2023, and 19% YOY for H1 2024.

There’s also been a tremendous spike in withdrawn applications since the dependants policy announcement, further highlighting how the UK is experiencing a demand decline rather than a quality decline. Over 6,000 main applicants withdrew their sponsored study visa application in the year ending June 2024, an increase of 279% over the same period in 2023. For just H1 2024, the YOY increase from 2023 was a startling 748%.

Which International Student Populations Declined the Most for the UK in 2024?

Over 110 student populations were issued fewer sponsored study permits for main applicants in the year ending June 2024 compared to the previous year. And for just H1 of the calendar year, this figure surpassed 120 student populations. The bulk of these reductions were from countries sending under 50 students to the UK, but many of the UK’s largest student populations also receded.

The tables below let you see the student populations that declined the most in 2024:

The Nigerian and Bangladeshi student populations are the most at risk for the UK. Sponsored study visas for both student populations dropped by over 44% for the year ending June 2024.

And the diminished demand grows more pronounced when we look at just the first half of the calendar year. From January through June 2024, the number of study visas issued to Nigerian students declined by nearly 70% over the same period in 2023. Issuances to Bangladeshi students dropped by 56% over this time frame.

Last summer, we flagged that Nigeria, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Ghana all had a dependant to main applicant ratio higher than 0.5:1, meaning their study visa applications would be most likely to decline. As these countries accounted for the four largest percentage drops in H1 2024, this prediction is proving to be unfortunately accurate.

For more information on Ghanaian student trends in the UK, check out our recent deep dive into Ghana.

While the policy change affecting student dependants has certainly been a key driver for many of these declines, it’s worth noting that economic factors like currency fluctuations or declining GDP in a student’s country of origin also contribute to reduced demand.

These International Student Populations Are Showing Increased Demand for a UK Study Visa

The change in demand is stark, and it would be easy to paint a picture that was only dire in response. However, in contrast to the broader negative trends, there are several student populations in which demand for a UK study visa has never been higher:

Pakistan and Nepal are the two countries leading demand growth for a UK sponsored study visa. Nearly 34,000 Pakistani students were issued a study visa for the year ending in June 2024, meaning Pakistan surpassed Nigeria to become the UK’s third largest source of students. And impressively, Pakistan’s growth rate was even higher in H1 2024 (32%) than its year ending June growth rate (17%).

We recently looked at how Nepal is poised to alter the international student landscape across the globe in the coming decade, and its students are certainly showing a strong interest in the UK. Nepal became the UK’s sixth largest source of students in the year ending June 2024, growing by 63% over the previous year.

We’d recommend institutions focus on recruiting any of the student populations that grew in both the year ending June and H1 of the calendar year. That’s because study visa numbers for a few of the fastest-growing countries in the former list actually declined during H1 of this calendar year, such as Afghanistan (down 55%) and Turkey (down 22%), illustrating that these student populations are more in flux than those showing improvements over both time frames.

The Graduate Route Looks Here To Stay

In addition to the student populations defying the overall trend, there’s another reason for optimism: International students can once again be confident in the Graduate Route.

At the start of the year, it was uncertain whether the previous government would continue to support the Graduate Route. But in May, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) recommended retaining the Graduate Route in its current form, which mostly put those concerns to rest. And now the new Labour government has stated their intention to maintain the Graduate Route.

ApplyBoard was happy to be invited to the consultation stage of the MAC review. Justin Wood, Director of Partner Relations, UK and Ireland, attended on ApplyBoard’s behalf.

Our Pulse Surveys routinely show that post-graduation work opportunities are a top priority in an international student’s decision-making process. And while restoring student confidence about Graduate Route availability won’t completely offset the loss of demand from last year’s policy changes, it should help slow the decline.

The Future of International Education in the UK

The sector has been signalling for some time now that last year’s policy changes around dependants suppressed the global demand for a UK study experience. While the full effect of this change won’t be known until the fall, H1 data illustrates how many students, especially those with families, are simply looking to start their international education elsewhere.

While the larger downtrends cannot be ignored, neither should the potential for optimism (as challenging as it may be). For starters, the UK is home to many of the world’s most prestigious universities which offer field-leading research opportunities and strong graduate outcomes. Plus, London was recently crowned the world’s best student city for the sixth year in a row. And with the new government’s promise to maintain the Graduate Route, the UK can offer international students both world-class experiences during their studies and strong career opportunities after they’ve graduated. Getting this information into the hands of prospective international students is critical for institutions—particularly among the student populations for whom demand remains high.

In her speech at the Embassy Education Conference this past July, the Secretary of State for Education stated outright that “international students are welcome in the UK,” and that the government “values their contribution—to our universities, to our communities, to our country.”

Australia’s new international student cap may also provide the UK’s international education sector with potential for positive momentum. Destination markets don’t operate in a vacuum—we’ve seen time and again how policies in one country can push or pull student inflows from another. The UK benefited when Australia’s borders were closed for two years in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, so it would not surprise us to see a renewed spike in interest for UK institutions due to the forthcoming Australian cap.

Working with ApplyBoard can help your team connect with prospective students, faster and easier. We have networks and partners all over the world, including in most of the countries in which demand for a UK study visa has never been higher.

If you’re part of a team that’s interested in receiving specific insights tailored to your institution’s international recruitment goals, reach out to ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team. We’ll work with you to identify the best diversification opportunities with current, actionable data.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of the UK Home Office, unless otherwise stated.

2. Year ending June measures July of the previous year to June of the given year. Calendar year measures January to December of the given year.

3. The year ending June 2024 saw 16,600 refusals, an increase of 161% over the same period 2023. H1 2024 saw 5,700 refusals, an increase of 129% over the same period 2023.