Canada’s international education sector has weathered the impact of the first year of student caps. As we approach the rollout of Canada’s revised 2025 caps, it’s a critical time to evaluate how demand for Canadian study abroad programs has shifted due to these policy changes.
This past fall, when we analysed study permit data1 from the first six months of 2024, we projected that processed post-secondary applications would drop by up to 40% over the full year. That prediction was made before the Minister of Immigration announced a further decrease in student caps for the next two years, and prior to significant changes to Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program.
Now, with more complete data for 2024,2 a clearer picture of the effect of Canada’s international student caps has emerged: Study permit approvals are on track to fall by 45% in 2024, compared to 2023. Read on to find out which study levels and student populations have seen the largest declines, which emerging source markets have maintained growth despite the caps, and more.
Key Insights at a Glance
- From January through October 2024, the Canadian student visa approval rate was around 50%.
- Based on this approval rate, we project that the full-year number of approvals will decline by 45% year-over-year, resulting in a maximum of 280,000 approvals across all study levels (including K-12 and postgraduate).
- The number of approvals for capped study levels fell by 60% in Jan–Oct 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, while cap-exempt approvals dropped by 27%.
- Visa approvals for major student populations such as India, Nigeria, and Nepal dropped by over 50% through the first ten months of 2024. By contrast, student populations from Senegal, Guinea, and Vietnam maintained year-over-year growth.
Study Permit Volumes Well Below 2024 Caps
The Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship (IRCC) set Canada’s 2024 international student caps based on a 35% reduction compared to 2023. After further adjustments were made for proportional allocation to each province and territory, final targets of 552,095 study permit applications and 291,914 study permit approvals for capped study levels were set.3
Yet, even from the early days of the caps, decreased student interest outpaced government estimates. As that decreased interest continued throughout the year, IRCC is now on pace to approve only 280,000 total study permits for full-year 2024:4
The total number of study permits processed is set to drop by 35% year-over-year, in line with IRCC’s targets. However, study permit approvals have not kept pace. The projected 280,000 approvals would represent a 45% drop from 2023, outpacing IRCC’s intended reduction by ten percentage points. This would also be the lowest number of study permit approvals in a non-pandemic year since 2019.
This significant drop was felt across all destination provinces, but Ontario and Nova Scotia have experienced the largest impact:
While Ontario institutions accounted for over half of all study permit approvals in 2023, approvals for these schools are projected to fall 55% year-over-year, the highest of any province. This drop results in institutions in Alberta, British Columbia, and Quebec accounting for a larger share of 2024 approvals, although each province is still forecasted to see approvals decline by at least 10,000 compared to 2023.
Four in every five respondents in our latest Recruitment Pulse Survey agreed that Canada’s decisions to limit study permit applications made it a less desirable destination.
Study Permit Approval Rates Fall to 50%
This rebalanced provincial distribution highlights the other main reason for the difference between IRCC targets and actual 2024 trends: approval rates. When Canada’s 2024 caps were introduced, Minister Miller initially detailed that a 60% study permit approval rate was used for all cap calculations. Later, when additional ‘top-up’ modifications were made to encourage student distribution across all provinces, this rate was shifted down to 53%.
However, even taking this reduced 53% approval rate into account, study permit approval rates are highly unlikely to hit IRCC’s target by the end of the year:
Through the first ten months of 2024, the overall study permit approval rate hovered just above 50%. This represented a ten percentage point drop from the same period in 2023. But it’s likely this rate will fall even further once full-year 2024 data is available, based on 2021–2023 trends.5 As a result, we expect the average study permit approval rate will fall below 50% for full-year 2024, dropping around four percentage points below IRCC estimates.
This approval rate drop is, in part, driven by a steep decline in study permit approvals for institutions in Ontario, as noted above. Additionally, only three provinces experienced an average approval rate above 50% in Jan–Oct 2024: Alberta (60%), British Columbia (66%), and Ontario (54%). But the national average was ultimately brought down by Quebec’s declining approval rates. Average approval rates for applicants intending to study in Quebec dropped by over ten percentage points in Jan–Oct 2024, falling to just 32%, the lowest provincial approval rate over the last decade.
The average Canadian student visa approval rate for ApplyBoard students reached 82% in 2024, nearly 32 percentage points higher than the sector average approval rate.
Cap Impact Felt Across All Study Levels
The downturn in study permit approvals was not limited to study levels directly impacted by the cap.6 In fact, based on our projections, study permit approvals across all study levels in 2024 will fall well below IRCC’s intended total approvals for capped study levels alone. Although cap-exempt study levels have experienced more limited approval declines, these broad impacts demonstrate the wide-reaching impact of policy changes on overall student sentimentality about a given destination country.
Number of Study Permit Approvals for Capped Programs Drop by 60%
The primary focus for Canada’s 2024 international student caps was limiting approvals for post-secondary programs.7 Under the national cap, up to 292,000 study permits could be approved for these study levels, amounting to a 28% decline compared to 2023.
However, the actual declines realized for these study levels will likely far surpass government estimates:
Across capped study levels, Canadian colleges have faced the starkest approval declines. In the first ten months of 2024, less than 91,000 study permits were approved for international college students, down from over 210,000 during the same months in 2023. Barring a significant increase in approvals during November and December, it’s likely that new international student populations at Canadian colleges dropped by 60% in 2024.
By comparison, visa approvals for capped university studies were marginally more stable year-over-year. New study permit approvals for international undergraduate students fell from over 57,000 in Jan–Oct 2023 to under 34,000 in Jan–Oct 2024. This 41% decrease more closely aligns with the cap’s intended reduction target, but it still represents the lowest number of approvals for undergraduate students since 2017.8
Earlier this year, we estimated that 231K post-secondary study permits would be approved in 2024. Based on updated IRCC data, that projection remains accurate: 192K post-secondary study permits were approved in Jan–Oct 2024, which we now estimate to rise to 221K by the end of December.
Cap-Exempt Programs Not Exempt from Shifting Student Sentiment
Four study levels were noted as exempt when Canada’s international student caps were first announced: primary and secondary school as well as master’s and doctoral programs. IRCC estimated that 140,000 study permits would be approved across these levels in 2024, based on totals from the 2023 application period.
However, approvals for these cap-exempt visas remained more than 25% lower in Jan–Oct 2024 versus the same period in 2023:
Approvals for secondary students remained the most stable year-over-year, with approvals falling by nearly 20% over the first ten months of 2024. However, declining approval volumes reached around 30% for both primary and master’s students, and doctoral student volumes continued their persistent year-over-year declines.
Given that many international primary and secondary students come to Canada with parents who are studying at the post-secondary levels, these drops reflect the knock-on effects of the 2024 caps. Despite these study levels being exempt from the cap, students have also been influenced by negative sentiment about Canada’s education sector, which in turn has further limited student flows.
This downturn in postgraduate student volumes means the impact of including these study levels in the 2025–2026 student caps may be somewhat mitigated. As we detailed last October, we project that approximately 263,000 study permit approvals will be divided among the provinces under the 2025 caps, and at least 12% of these approvals needs to be reserved for postgraduate students. As a result, we anticipate at least 32,000 approvals will be set aside for master’s and doctoral applicants, and this figure closely aligns with Jan–Oct 2024 postgraduate approvals.
Cap Influence on Key Student Populations
Interestingly, the 2024 caps have not had a uniform impact on Canada’s international student populations. Most student groups experienced year-over-year declines, but some established and emerging populations went against that trend.
Of the 61 student groups with more than 300 study permit approvals in Jan–Oct 2024, 40 saw year-over-year approval volumes fall by 20% or more. But eight student groups are on pace to grow in 2024, despite the caps:
Student populations from Senegal, Guinea, and Vietnam all grew through the first ten months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. This impressive growth signals that these student populations may be a key source of diversity across Canadian campuses during the cap era.
By contrast, declining student populations were more widespread. New approval drops exceeding 20% included eight of the top ten student populations from 2023. Additionally, five of these student groups saw their new approvals at least halved year-over-year. Students from India, Nigeria, and the Philippines, who collectively accounted for more than half (54%) of all study permit approvals through the first ten months of 2023, only represented 44% of all approvals through the same period in 2024.
Ghana remains poised to help drive international student diversity in Canada, despite cap impacts. While approvals for Ghanaian students decreased by 11% in Jan–Oct 2024 vs. Jan–Oct 2023, they remained nearly 175% higher than approval figures from the same period in 2022.
How Institutions Can Improve Conversion Rates and Maximize Diversity with ApplyBoard
While some institutions may view these shifting volumes as a reason to move away from high-demand, low-approval markets, we strongly recommend against this shift. Such a move could significantly reduce campus diversity, jeopardize student flows, and limit institutional ability to weather geopolitical shifts.
Institutions should instead focus on working exclusively with partners that drive higher conversion and visa approvals, without sacrificing diversity to manage cap allocations. By working with ApplyBoard, institutions can take advantage of our innovative platform that steers applicants toward programs that suit their academic journey.
Across Canada’s major student populations, ApplyBoard students have significantly higher study permit approval rates compared to other applicants:
In 2024, ApplyBoard students were approved for their study permit in 82% of cases, exceeding the national all-applicant average by nearly 32 percentage points. In some cases, ApplyBoard student approval rates were nearly 40 percentage points higher than the average for students from those countries, such as Nigeria.
Why are ApplyBoard’s Visa Approval Rates Higher?
Over the past ten years, ApplyBoard has taken concrete steps to enhance transparency, integrity, and technological innovation throughout the student application process:
- AI-Powered Program Matching: Our platform steers applicants toward programs tailored to their academic journey, providing tailored program recommendations with prediction scores based on the student profile and preferences.
- Application Pre-Screening: Our pre-screening process ensures applications are complete, legible, and free of potential red flags, helping to maximize conversion success. Half of all applications submitted to ApplyBoard are not passed on to institutions, ensuring admissions teams spend time reviewing only strong and complete applications, streamlining the admissions process.
- Recruitment Partner Vetting and Training: ApplyBoard vets and monitors recruitment partners for adherence to strict quality controls, including response times, conversion rates, and student satisfaction. We also provide training and up-to-date information on school programs, requirements, intake data, and scholarship opportunities on one platform.
The result of these efforts is that many ApplyBoard students put forth stronger applications to IRCC. ApplyBoard students are better equipped to write a genuine statement of purpose for their study permit application, and they are more likely to submit complete, high-quality applications, enhancing their approval rates.
By partnering with ApplyBoard, your institution can help mitigate the pressures of increased conversion and ensure your student populations remain stable, vibrant, and diverse. We also offer the ability to send offers-in-principle and consolidate tuition deposit processes, reducing the resources needed to administrate your international student program while ensuring cap spaces are allocated to students who are very likely to enroll.
What We Expect for Canada’s International Education Sector in 2025
On January 22, 2025, Canada will transition from initial cap targets to a further 10% reduction. As we’ve detailed previously, these limitations along with changes to Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program and the inclusion of postgraduate studies in Canada’s 2025 and 2026 caps could limit the ability of Canadian institutions to attract talented students from around the globe.
Yet Canada retains some key advantages that may help the sector level-off in 2025. Canada maintains one of the world’s strongest post-graduation work programs, with recent changes to the PGWP program emphasizing that there will be no additional field of study requirements for master’s and doctoral levels. Some new programs have been added to eligible PGWP fields as well, recognizing the growing need for educators across Canada. And, the inclusion of postgraduate programs into the 2025 caps may help institutions streamline application processing.9
Government policy changes in 2024 have reshaped Canada’s international education landscape, but 2025 could be a year of building stability. ApplyBoard’s proven track record as a sector leader in agent training and document verification can help institutions remain efficient and agile, increasing conversion likelihood from diverse student populations.
For data-backed guidance on how you can maximize conversion rates, please reach out to your Partner Relations Manager, or contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com.
Subscribe to ApplyInsights
Sign up for the latest insights on international education.
About the ApplyInsights Team
FOOTNOTES:
1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.
2. All data is sourced from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) unless otherwise noted. Most recent government data cited in this article spans January to October 2024. All figures associated with full-year 2024 are ApplyBoard projections based on Jan–Oct 2024 figures and Nov–Dec trends from previous calendar years. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.
3. For the 2024 year, cap-exempt study levels (which are not included in these counts) include primary, secondary, and postgraduate students.
4. While the 2024 student caps did not come into effect until January 22, 2024, and will extend until January 21, 2025, throughout this article we use January 2024 pre-cap student volumes as a proxy for expected student volumes in January 2025.
5. This assumes that study permit approval rate trends hold true to what has occurred over the past three years, where approval rates have fallen in November and December as shown.
6. Canada’s 2024 national cap on study permit applications included several exemptions based on program study level. Cap-exempt study levels included primary and secondary school, master’s programs, and doctoral degrees.
7. Not including master’s and doctoral degrees, although the Minister of Immigration announced in October 2024 that these study levels will be integrated into Canada’s 2025–2026 student caps.
8. Excluding 2020, which was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
9. Exclusion of particular study levels in the 2024 cap may have had the potential to create further limits on capped study levels. For example, if postgraduate student levels had far exceeded initial estimations, it is unclear if this could have necessitated stricter limits on undergraduate applications.
