The UK’s international education sector experienced significant shifts in 2024, following a series of policy changes that reshaped student mobility. The Sunak government’s restrictions on student dependants had an immediate influence on student flows, particularly on applicants from key source markets where bringing family is a major priority. Rising international student fees and uncertainty surrounding the Graduate Route—which has since been resolved—also created barriers that dampened student demand.
Of course, the UK was not alone in experiencing softened student interest. International education sectors in Canada, the US, and Australia all faced declines in 2024. Encouragingly for the UK, early signs point to positive momentum in 2025, with many institutions reporting higher enrolments in this year’s January intake than in the same time last year.
That’s why today, we’re taking a close look at the latest UK Home Office data release, covering all of 2024. We’ll break down the latest study visa trends, highlight which student populations were most affected, and examine which markets remained resilient. Read on to see what these trends mean for UK institutions heading into 2025.
Key Insights at a Glance
- The UK processed 423,000 applications from primary applicants in 2024, a drop of 12% over the previous year.1
- Seven of the eight largest declines in student visa applications from main applicants came from student populations with the highest dependent-to-main-applicant ratios in 2023.2
- Nepal had the highest application growth rate among main applicants in 2024, up 61% over the previous year.3
- Chinese main applicant students were issued the most UK study visas in 2024, reclaiming the top spot for the first time since 2021.
Main Applicant Demand Declined by 12% in 2024
While the UK has long been a top destination for international students worldwide, demand for UK study visas peaked in 2022, when nearly half a million applications from main applicants were processed. Global disruption in international student flows following the COVID-19 pandemic was a factor that contributed to this high-water mark. Main applicant submissions then dipped slightly in 2023—coinciding with post pandemic stabilization and a host of unwelcoming messaging about non-EU students under the Sunak administration, including the announced dependants restrictions—before dropping significantly in 2024:
The UK processed over 423,000 sponsored study visas for main applicant international students in 2024. This represents a 12% decline from the previous year and a 15% drop from the 2022 high-point. While this drop was more mild than student visa decreases seen in other destinations in 2024, it still accounts for over 50,000 fewer processed applications in a single year.
Withdrawn applications also tell a story of softened student demand, likely related to policy changes. Nearly 6,600 main applicants withdrew their study visa application in 2024, a 127% increase compared to the previous year. Notably, this was following a huge spike in withdrawals in Q4 2023, when 2,000 students withdrew their application in that quarter alone—a 366% increase from Q4 2022. In short, after a wave of unwelcoming messaging from the Sunak administration in mid-to-late 2023, fewer international students applied for UK study visas, and withdrawals hit record highs.
Nearly 63,000 UK study visa main applications were processed in Q4 2024. This represents a growth of only 9% over Q4 2023, possibly signalling renewed student confidence.
Largest Demand Drops Come From International Student Populations With High Dependant-to-Main-Applicant Ratios
Shortly after the restrictions on dependants were announced in 2023, we flagged that the policy risked softening demand from student populations with a high dependant-to-main-applicant ratio, including Nigeria and India. The table below shows the student populations that had the highest dependant to main applicant ratio in 2023, and how the number of main applicants changed in 2024:4
Seven of the 10 student populations with the highest dependant-to-main-applicant ratios saw significant declines in main applicants in 2024 compared to 2023. Interestingly, main applicant volumes from Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh remained resilient despite these student populations traditionally being more likely to bring their families with them. In fact, study visa applications from Nepalese applicants grew a striking 61% in 2024.
Nepal has one of the highest outbound student mobility ratios in the world. Read more about how Nepalese students will help alter the international student landscape in the coming decade.
Does this mean concerns about the new policy were overstated since not all high-ratio student populations saw declines? Not quite. The seven countries that experienced declining interest—Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Iran, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, and India—accounted for seven of the eight largest main applicant declines last year, with Russia (-21%) slightly surpassing Saudi Arabia.
While the impact of the dependants policy wasn’t uniform, it played a major role in shaping student mobility trends in 2024. For UK institutions looking to rebuild confidence in the key markets affected by this new policy, clear communication around post-study work opportunities, financial support, and campus resources will be essential. Proactively addressing concerns can help restore trust and re-engage prospective applicants moving forward.
Where Did Student Demand for a UK Study Visa Remain Resilient in 2024?
As noted above, seven of the eight largest study visa application declines came from student populations that traditionally had high dependant ratios. But beyond these declines, which student populations showed increased demand in 2024? The table below highlights the top 10 student populations that saw growth in 2024:5
Nepal and Pakistan stand out not just for defying the broader trend of declines among high-ratio dependant student populations, but also for the scale of their growth. Nepal ranked first overall, with the highest year-over-year increase in main applicants (+61%), while Pakistan (+11%) secured the fourth spot. Their resilience suggests that factors beyond dependant policies—such as economic conditions, domestic education capacity, and long-term aspirations for post-study work—continue to shape student decision-making.
Beyond these two countries, growth in 2024 was spread across a range of regions. Kenya and Myanmar (Burma) saw some of the largest increases, pointing to emerging demand from parts of Africa and Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, European countries like Germany, Switzerland, and Italy posted moderate gains. And, the presence of Mexico and Kazakhstan in the top 10 further underscores the increasingly global nature of student mobility to the UK.
Just outside this top 10, main applications from Kuwait and Turkey also notably grew in 2024.6 These two markets may be worth closer attention as UK institutions adapt to shifting student mobility trends.
Top 10 Student Populations Issued a UK Study Visa in 2024
The policy-driven softening of demand led to significant shifts in the UK’s international student body in 2024. At the top, Chinese students reclaimed their position as the largest recipients of UK study visas this year:
With 103,000 study visas issued, Chinese students reclaimed the top spot as the largest new student population by main applicants in 2024. This cohort overtook Indian students for the first time since 2021, making the impact of the dependant restrictions clear. China, with a historically low dependant-to-main-applicant ratio (less than 1 in 100), saw just a 6% decline in issuances—demonstrating steady demand despite a challenging global landscape. Indian students, by contrast, faced a 26% drop, underscoring the outsized impact of the policy on high dependants-ratio markets.7
Other previously growing student populations also demonstrate the impact of this shift. In 2022, study visa issuances for Nigerian main applicants were rising quickly and seemed on track to surpass 100,000, alongside India and China. That trajectory has since reversed. In 2024, issuances for Nigerian main applicants fell to 18,900, representing a 68% drop from the 2022 peak. This lost demand from Nigerian students outweighs the promising growth UK institutions have seen in Pakistani and Nepalese students over this period, driving overall volumes down.
Although Bangladeshi applications remained strong in 2024, visa issuances did not reflect the same growth. The 6,500 visas issued to main Bangladeshi applicants represent a 30% decline from 2023, driven by a striking 18% refusal rate. This was the highest refusal rate among the top 10 student populations, with only Pakistan (12%) also exceeding 10%.
In total, the UK issued 397,000 study visas to main applicants in 2024, a 14% decline over the previous year.
Looking Ahead
The UK’s international education sector faced considerable challenges in 2024, with policy changes reshaping student mobility patterns. The sharp declines in student demand from key markets highlight the impact of these shifts, particularly for countries where bringing family is a major factor in study decisions. However, the resilience of many student populations— especially Nepalese and Pakistani students—demonstrates that demand for UK education remains strong in key regions across the globe.
ApplyBoard is actively contributing actionable data, insight, and recommendations as the new UK Labour Government refreshes its International Education Strategy. At this stage—and despite calls from some in the sector—we don’t anticipate imminent steps to reverse the dependent policy, nor do we think it’s likely that the Government will opt to take international students out of the net migration figures. That said, we’ve already seen a much more positive message coming from the Government towards international students and we expect this to be sustained and reflected in the launch of the new strategy.
Beyond the government’s broader strategy plans, for UK institutions looking to rebuild confidence in affected markets, targeted recruitment efforts will be critical. Clear communication around post-study work opportunities, financial support, and student resources can help re-engage prospective applicants. Meanwhile, growing demand from markets like Kenya, Myanmar, Kuwait, and Mexico presents an opportunity for institutions to diversify their recruitment strategies.
Understanding these shifts and responding with agility will be key to sustaining enrolment growth in 2025 and beyond. With ApplyBoard’s advanced data insights and recruitment solutions, institutions can identify emerging opportunities and connect with high-intent students in a rapidly evolving landscape. Reach out to learn how we can support your international recruitment efforts and help you navigate the road ahead.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. All data courtesy of the UK Home Office, unless otherwise stated.
2. The dependant to main applicant ratio refers to the number of dependants divided by the number of main applicants for a given student population in the given year. A higher ratio indicates that a significant portion of students from that country tend to bring family members when studying in the UK.
3. Consider all student populations with a minimum of 1,000 applications in 2024.
4. Minimum of 1,000 sponsored study visa applications.
5. Minimum of 1,000 applications from main applicants.
6. The 5,700 main applicants from Kuwait was a year-over-year growth of 4%, while the 5,200 applicants from Turkey represent a 3% growth rate.
7. Note, however, that Indian student inflows dropped across all “big four” English study destinations—Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US—in 2024. Our 2025 Trends Report explored how India is investing heavily into its higher education sector in order to attract more students to study domestically.
