Brexit Redirects EU Interest As Graduate Route Grows in Popularity, New HESA Data Says

HESA data for the 2021/22 academic year is out and the UK picked up where it left off the previous year, setting a new single-year record for international student enrollment.

UK higher education institutions hosted over 679,000 international students in 2021/22, a 12% increase over the previous high of 605,000 in 2020/21.¹

Today, we’re unpacking some of the most interesting trends behind this encouraging growth for UK higher education. How does the UK compare to other top destination markets? How drastically has Brexit impacted EU enrollments? And which institutions are rapidly gaining the attention of international students? We’ll cover it all in detail below.

The UK’s Impressive Relative Growth

The UK was a hot topic in international education during the pandemic as British institutions didn’t see the decrease in international student applications which plagued so many other destination countries.

In 2021/22, international enrollment continued trending upwards in the UK. Let’s compare the recent growth of the UK to the US—the only other market with full-year data for the 2021/22 academic year:

Growth in the UK isn’t merely getting back to pre-pandemic levels, it’s reaching new heights.

International enrollment in the UK jumped by over 12% last year, marking the biggest YOY increase of the last 10 years. While post-pandemic enrollment has been on the rise across destination countries, like the US at +7%, the UK’s growth is particularly impressive.

Post-graduation work programs are paramount for today’s international students and the UK offers one of the most attractive options available in the Graduate Route.

Let’s take a look at how the fallout from Brexit is impacting the mobility of students inside and outside of the EU.

EU Enrollment Feels the Brunt of Brexit Impact

One of the most staggering trends we’re seeing in 2023 is the decline in interest from EU students. Here’s what that trend looked like across the top 6 EU markets in 2021/22:

From 2020/21 to 2021/22, the average decline in first-year enrollment across the top EU countries was -53%. This marked the first time in 22 years that fewer EU students studied at UK universities than the year before.

Ireland was the only nation within the top 10 European source countries to post a positive year-over-year growth rate in 2021/22, at a modest 1.2%.

In addition to posting the highest YOY growth rate of all EU countries, Ireland also replaced France for the highest first-year enrollments for EU students—the first time Ireland has held the top EU spot in over 10 years.

This is because Irish students are treated as domestic students by UK universities. They’re offered the same tuition rates and access to student loans as British citizens, making Ireland the only EU nation likely to resist a long-term decrease in enrollment.

Opportunity for Non-EU Markets

Dwindling interest from EU students in UK universities, paired with spreading knowledge of the Graduate Route has opened up opportunity for other students.

In the first year in which the data has reflected the impact of Brexit on EU students, we’re seeing the hole left by this cohort being filled by several emerging markets outside of Europe. In 2021/22, non-EU first-year enrollments rose by over 32%.

The following interactive graph breaks down the UK’s top six non-European international student markets since 2017/18. Toggle between the two views to see all markets at once or on a country-by-country basis:

China remains the UK’s top international source market, with over 151,000 students enrolled in UK universities. But the real story here is the movement we’re seeing around the top. Several countries, including India (+50%), Nigeria (+107%), and Pakistan (+78%) took huge leaps forward in 2021/22.

First-year non-EU taught master’s student enrollments increased by 46% from 2020/21 to 2021/22.

Increase in Applications May Cause Tuition Hikes

UK universities are experiencing the start of what could be a new era of international education in their country. The highly touted Graduate Route helped put the UK on the radar of the majority of international students everywhere. For students outside of the EU, this opportunity is even more enticing.

As competition from EU students fades, we expect application numbers from Non-EU students to continue to rise as knowledge of the Graduate Route spreads. On the institutional side, UK universities have not lowered requirements to make room for this increased demand.

In fact, if international student applications keep increasing at the rate we’ve seen over the last two years, UK universities may go the other direction. Strengthening requirements and raising tuition rates in the face of growing interest could be a strategy that British institutions employ as soon as next year.

For recruitment partners working with students who are on the cusp of being able to afford international education in the UK, this is important information to consider. While now may be the time to lock in lower tuition fees for shorter degrees, students who are accepted to fall intake 2023/24 programs could see their tuition increase during the course of their degree.

Most Popular UK Universities Among International Students

Let’s take a look at the dispersion of international students across the UK in 2020/21. The map below highlights the top 50 UK universities by first-year international student enrollment.

The bigger the circle, the larger the institution’s international student population. Hover over each circle to learn more about the size of each university’s international student population, its growth relative to 2020/21, and where it ranks among other UK universities:

For the fourth consecutive year, University College London hosted more international students than any other UK university, with over 24,000 international students last year.

2021/22 was a year of growth for several UK universities which took huge leaps forward in their recruitment of international students. The following table ranks UK international enrollment by university, as well as the year-over-year growth:

Sheffield Hallam University (+73%) and Teesside University (+62%) were the two fastest-growing universities in the UK last year, vaulting up the international enrollment rankings.

Overall, there were 14 universities that experienced a YOY international enrollment increase of at least 22% in 2021/22, with the average increase at 12%.

It’s also super encouraging to see the continued development of universities outside the London core. Eight of the top 10 fastest-growing UK universities last year were not based in London.

This is promising news for UK universities, as housing concerns loom amid international student growth in the UK’s most densely populated metro area. Students appear to be excited at the prospect of studying all over England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. This outward student mobility makes the long-term growth of international education in the UK look very sustainable.

Looking Forward

Between Brexit-induced changes to student mobility and growing postgraduate opportunities for international students, many questions loom over the UK as it evolves into one of the most popular destination markets in the world.

The dip in EU interest seen this past year is staggering, but it’s unclear whether EU interest has levelled off, or whether it wil continue to fall. One thing that seems certain, however, is the Non-EU enrollment will continue to soar as a result of the Graduate Route.

Within UK borders, the only thing standing in the way of exponential growth are tuition increases and capacity challenges. In order to pursue an education on UK soil, international students need to be confident they can afford life as a student in the UK and secure housing.

Outside of the UK, the development of other top destination markets could sway the interest of prospective students. Australia now offers students the longest post-graduate work visa at a maximum of 4 years, the US has expanded its OPT program, and Canada’s PGWPP continues to be a popular consideration among all international students.

At ApplyInsights, we’ll be monitoring the UK’s journey throughout the year, checking in to assess how UK institutions are meeting this increased demand.

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FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of HESA, unless otherwise stated.