2021 was a record-breaking year for international education in Canada. After pent-up demand around the world resulted in over 336,000 new international students at Canadian schools, excitement and curiosity brewed around the potential for growth in 2022.1
Recently released IRCC data for January to March is in, and early indications are extremely positive. Despite approval rates being down across the board, we’re seeing encouraging growth from several of Canada’s key and emerging source markets.
Today, we’re unpacking all the first-quarter highlights of 2022, digging deeper into the reasons behind the dip in approval rates, and projecting how high study permit approvals could grow throughout the entire year. Let’s get to it!
Key Insights at a Glance
- Approval rates are down 5 percentage points from full-year 2021, but are expected to rise by the end of the year.
- More than 41,000 Indian students were approved to study in Canada between January and March 2022, putting India on an early pace to shatter last year’s record of 139,058 study permits approved.
- Just over 2,000 Chinese students were approved over the same time frame, a significant decline relative to full-year 2021 (28,000+).
Indian Applications Soaring Early in 2022
Three months into the year, India is far and away 2022’s number one success story across Canada. More than 41,000 Indian students were approved to study at a Canadian institution between January and March this year.
Not only have Indian study permit approvals already surpassed 2020 full-year totals, but they’re on pace to shatter last year’s record of just over 139,000 study permits approved. The graph below shows the number of study permit approvals Indian students received from 2016 to 2022:
Three months into the year, the 41,000 study permit approvals for Indian students is a strong indication that 2022 will set a new record for the number of Indian students approved to study in Canada.
From 2016 to 2021, just 20% of all study permit approvals came between January and March. Given that Canada approves the majority of its study permits later in the year, expect monthly approvals for Indian students to ramp up considerably in the coming months.
Encouraging Approval Numbers from Several Growing Source Markets
Our first look at 2022 data is a prime opportunity to check in on the growth potential of some of Canada’s emerging source markets. Let’s examine the top 10 source markets ranked by study permit approvals so far in 2022:
Aside from China, which continues to decline as a source market in 2022, these rankings are packed with growth.
The Philippines have decisively transitioned from being an emerging market to becoming the largest source market for international students in Canada outside of India. Filipino students accounted for the 19th-most approvals in 2016 and hold the number two spot just six years later. This represents the biggest leap up the study permit approval rankings during a 5+ year span by any source market in the last 22 years.2
We recently analyzed which metro areas students from growing markets are targeting across Canada.
We’re also seeing encouraging growth by Nigeria, Japan, and Colombia, which have been some of Canada’s fastest-growing post-pandemic source markets.
One trend to watch throughout the year is the massive surge in approvals coming from Nepal. In the first three months of 2022, Nepal has already surpassed 55% of its 2021 study permit approval total. Nepal jumped 12 spots in the rankings this year, marking the largest increase of any source market over the first three months of 2022.
While there’s plenty of time for the names on this list to rise and fall over the next nine months, Canadian institutions should consider expanding their recruitment efforts into markets that are growing quickly. As Canada increases in popularity as a study abroad destination, schools may find competitive advantages in recruiting from high-potential markets that other institutions are not watching as closely.
Figuring Out the 2022 Approval Rate Decline
From January to March 2022, 55% of all study permit applications were approved. This approval rate was down five percentage points from 2021 and marks the fifth time in a six-year span that the approval rate has dropped. Here’s what that decline looked like:
2020 marked the largest single-year decline in study permit approvals at nine percentage points, largely due to travel restrictions during the pandemic. But approval rates rebounded strongly in 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic rates.
With three months of data in, the question becomes, are these lower approval rates representative of what we should expect at the end of 2022?
In order to get the answer, we compared the approval rates and application volumes from January to March of each year since 2016:
Study permit applications from January to March have a lower approval rate than applications made from April to December. That’s been true in five of the past six years, with the only exception being 2020, when the pandemic heavily impacted approval rates.
We expect approval rates to rise over the next nine months, and because so many study permits are approved later in the year, this should have an outsized impact on the full-year approval rate for 2022. The approval rate for the start of 2022 remains interesting and an important data point when compared to the same periods since 2016, as shown above.
In the four years leading up to the pandemic, less than 13% of all study permit approvals came between January and March.
The relatively small number of applications that have been processed so far in 2022 is not necessarily an indication that Canada will see a substantial decline in full-year approval rates.
China Continues Trending Downwards
Just over 2,000 Chinese students were approved for study permits from January to March in 2022, a significant decline relative to full-year 2021 (28,000+) and just the fourth-highest total among all source markets.
China posted a steady year-over-year increase in study permit approvals from 2014 to 2017, contributing the second-most students to Canada during that time. But since then, the international education powerhouse has slowed down, with approvals declining by 9 percentage points between 2019 and 2021.
We recently analyzed China’s growth and impact on international education in the US over the past decade.
This trend could very well be a product of the global slowdown that COVID-19 created for international education. Containing COVID-19 has come with unmistakeable sacrifices for Chinese residents. China’s adherence to its “Covid Zero” policy has left many citizens in a state of limbo.
At ApplyBoard, we’re optimistic that Chinese international students will return to Canada at pre-pandemic growth rates.
Due to the endless lockdowns impacting the majority of the Chinese population, the prospect of studying abroad, with the long-term potential for immigration, has increased dramatically in China. At ApplyBoard, we’re seeing inquiries from Chinese applicants ramp up for Fall 2022 intake and beyond. An increase in Chinese study permit applications could be on the horizon, as soon as later this year.
Looking Forward
2022 is off to a roaring start. Study permit approval volumes are up for Canada’s largest international source market as well as several emerging markets. And while approval rates may be down, recent data tells us that we shouldn’t panic.
With nine months of data left to come in and plenty of quality study permit applications on the way, our first glimpse into Canadian international education in 2022 is an overwhelmingly positive one.
For schools looking to capitalize on these early trends, here are our recommendations:
- Get recruitment teams on the ground in markets that are leaping up the study permit approval rankings. These students are often under-recruited and very interested in studying in Canada.
- Don’t get spooked by lower approval rates seen early on in the calendar year. The quality and volume of applications rise as the year goes on.
- Monitor the ongoing situation within China and keep faith in it as a strong source market with big potential when domestic restrictions lift permanently.
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About the ApplyInsights Team
Led by ApplyBoard Co-Founder and CMO Meti Basiri, the ApplyInsights Team analyzes the latest government, third-party, and ApplyBoard internal data, to provide a complete picture of trends in the international education industry. They also work with industry experts and ApplyBoard team members to gather local insights across key source and destination countries, where ApplyBoard has helped more than 300,000 students around the world.
FOOTNOTES:
1. All external data courtesy of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).
