The first half of the US’s 2024 fiscal year concluded at the end of March, and the signs point to another potential period of full-year growth for international education in the US.1 During H1 (the first half of the year), the US government issued over 100,000 F-1 student visas.2 It’s the third consecutive H1 in which over 100,000 international students were issued a F-1 visa.3
Which student populations drove this growth? Today, we dive into the latest F-1 visa trends for the US’s two largest student populations—India and China—as well as for emerging source countries. Join us as we uncover where there’s rising student demand for a US postsecondary education.
Key Insights at a Glance
- The first half of the year has historically accounted for about one of every four F-1 visa issuances for the full fiscal period.
- F-1 visa issuances to Indian students dropped by 16% in H1 of 2024 compared to H1 of 2023. This was the first time that H1 issuances to Indian students declined over the past six years.
- Nearly 15,000 Chinese students were issued a F-1 visa during the first half of 2024. This was a seven-year high for H1, and a growth of 35% over the same period in 2023.
- Nepalese students accounted for the third most F-1 visas issued during H1 of 2024. In full-year 2023, they were 14th.
Our most recent ApplyBoard Recruitment Partner (RP) Pulse Survey found that recent policy shifts in Canada, Australia, and the UK have made these destinations less attractive to international students. This means the US is well positioned to see major student interest gains over the back half of the year.
Third Consecutive Year With Over 100,000 F-1 Visas Issued During H1
More than 104,000 international students were issued an F-1 visa during the first half of 2024. Here’s how H1 of the fiscal year has evolved since 2018:
The US’s international education sector rebounded significantly post-pandemic. In H1 of 2022, the number of F-1 visas issued jumped to over 100,000 and it has remained above this threshold for three consecutive years.
But perhaps the most interesting trend here is that F-1 issuances declined during H1 in five of the past six years. Despite this, F-1 issuances grew overall in four of the past five full fiscal years. For example: issuances in H1 of 2023 dropped by 1% compared to H1 of 2022, but full-year 2023 grew by 9% over full-year 2022.
This suggests that full-year growth does not correlate with first-half trends and highlights the seasonality of F-1 visa issuances. The first half of the year accounted for only one in four F-1 issuances in 2022 and 2023, a rate slightly higher than pre-pandemic trends.
The seasonality of F-1 visa issuances makes projecting full-year trends from the H1 data difficult. But, this data can still provide institutions with useful insights into which student populations show growing demand for US postsecondary education.
F-1 Visas for Indian Students Drop in First Half of 2024, but Rise for Chinese Students
India and China are the two largest source countries for international students in the US, accounting for 49% of F-1 visas issued in full-year 2023. Let’s take a look at the half-year trends for these two large student populations:
The number of Indian students issued an F-1 visa during the first half of 2024 dropped by 16% over the same period in 2023. This was the only instance of H1 visa issuances for Indian students dropping over the past six years. While the seasonality of issuances means 2024 could still see overall gains, institutions should take note that this H1 drop follows downward trends in Indian demand among other destination markets: Visa issuances for Indian students to the UK fell by 14% in 2023, including a 43% decline in Q4, while Indian applications to Canada fell by 40% in the back half of 2023.
The US Consulate General in Mumbai expects visa applications from Indian students to grow 10% in 2024.4
The trends look better for what is now the US’s second largest student population. F-1 visa issuances for Chinese students grew 35% during H1 of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023. In fact, the nearly 15,000 F-1 visas issued to Chinese students was the highest H1 total across the past seven years. This signals a continuation of China’s promising full-year rebound in 2023.
Emerging Student Populations That Grew During the First Half of 2024
As we’ve outlined many times before, diversity of the student body is critical for a healthy international education sector. The following student populations helped drive greater diversity in the US during the first half of 2024:
The largest growth in the first half of 2024 came from Nepalese students. Nearly 4,600 F-1 visas were issued to Nepalese students, a growth of 194% over the same period of 2023. In fact, during the full fiscal period of 2023, only 5,700 Nepalese students were issued an F-1 visa, meaning H1 of 2024 already achieved 80% of that total.
Nepalese students represented the third-most F-1 visas issued in the first half of 2024, a huge jump from their position as the 14th-largest student population during the full 2023 fiscal period.
F-1 visas issued to students from Myanmar (Burma) grew almost as sharply as from Nepal. Nearly 2,000 F-1 visas were issued to students from Myanmar during H1 of 2024, a growth of 92% over the same period of 2023. And like Nepal, the half-year total for 2024 was close (over 75%) to matching 2023’s full fiscal year total.
The story differs a little for Vietnam, which was hit particularly hard by the pandemic. But Vietnam finally rebounded strongly in 2023, and has continued this momentum into 2024. The nearly 4,500 Vietnamese students issued an F-1 visa in H1 in 2024 represented a growth of 23% over the same period of 2023.
Students from Ghana and Pakistan also grew impressively in the first half of 2024, up 15% and 33% respectively. We’ve previously highlighted Ghana as a key emerging student population for the US international sector, and H1 of 2024 continues this trend.
Top 20 Student Populations During the First Half of 2024
Rounding out today’s deep dive, here are the 20 largest student populations based on F-1 visa issuances during the first half of 2024:
New student populations from France, Nigeria, and Chile all grew slightly in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year. The Nigerian student population growth is a particularly positive development following its slight decline in the full fiscal period of 2023, compared to the same period of 2022.
By contrast, the number of F-1 visas issued to students from South Korea, Japan, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia declined by more than 10% during H1 of this year compared to H1 of last year. There’s still time for these student populations to recover given the high seasonality of F-1 issuances, but their decline is significant enough that institutions will want to ensure they’re implementing intentional, strategic planning behind all recruitment resources allocated toward these countries.
Key Takeaways
The seasonality of F-1 visa issuances means that student populations that fell in H1 of 2024 could still rebound to new heights by the end of the full year. Nonetheless, American institutions should pay careful attention to the Indian student market. The 16% drop in H1 was the second largest decline among the US’s top 10 student populations and, most significantly, follows trends we’ve seen in the UK and Canada. Institutions will want to ensure they are recruiting across diverse student populations to protect themselves from further downturns.
China, Nepal, Myanmar, Vietnam, Ghana, and Pakistan all saw significant growth in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023. Institutions should aim to build stronger visibility with student in these locations. Remember, as we highlighted in this year’s Trends Report, diversity ultimately benefits institutions and students as it ensures students receive a higher-quality experience and education, with new voices leading to new ideas.
American institutions interested in attracting a more diverse student body would be well advised to emphasize the comprehensive experience—and advantages—they can offer prospective newcomers. Prestige and research strength are key factors, but so is building an international network, strengthening cross-cultural communication abilities, gaining work experience at top American companies, and accessing diverse research opportunities.
To learn more about what international students prioritize in their international student journey, check out our latest Pulse Survey results.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. All US student visa data used in this article is sourced from the U.S. Department of State. US government fiscal years run from October of the previous year to September of the given year. Throughout this article, all given years refer to this fiscal period rather than a calendar year.
2. As F-1 student visas are the most common visa status used by international students in the US, we’re confining our analysis to that specific visa type. As such, here and throughout this article, “student visa” refers to F-1 student visas. For reference, the US government has three student visas: F Student visas are academic (for study at an accredited K-12 school, college, or university, or studying English at an English language institute; the study must lead to a degree, diploma, or certificate); J Exchange visas are for participants in an exchange program either at the secondary school or university level; and M Student visas are for non-academic study (not including language programs), or vocational study or training.
3. Note that the monthly nonimmigrant visa issuance statistics this article leverages contain preliminary data which are subject to change.
4. The Free Press Journal, U.S. Expecting 10% Increase In Student Visa Applications In 2024: Consul General. May 20, 2024.
