For many international students looking to study abroad, post-graduation work opportunities are a key consideration. Post-graduation work programs offer students a chance to gain experience in their chosen sector, setting them up for success in their career. And, for students looking to stay in the country they study in, post-graduation work can be a key step towards permanent residency.
Over the past two decades, Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program has been a major draw for international students. In fact, over 1 million PGWPs have been approved since the program began.1 But recent government policy changes are set to limit PGWP eligibility for future international students in Canada.
Here, we’re taking a detailed look at what impact these policy changes might have on the demand for international education in Canada. We’ll look at PGWP trends over the past five years, how new PGWP field of study requirements will affect Canadian colleges and universities, and which province is poised to be the most impacted by revised program requirements.
Key Insights at a Glance
- Over 216,000 PGWPs were approved in 2023, with 2024 on track to see nearly 220,000 PGWPs approved before the policy changes were announced.
- College graduates have accounted for around 60% of all PGWPs approved over the past five years.
- Business and Management programs have been the most popular field of study for graduates approved for PGWP. However, the majority of graduates from these programs will be ineligible for PGWP under new policy guidelines.
Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) a Key Driver of Student Interest
Over the past five years, student interest in Canada’s PGWP program has reached new heights. In spite of the slowdowns created by the COVID-19 pandemic, PGWP approvals remained above 120,000 in each year from 2020 to 2022. Then, in 2023, program approvals surged:
In 2023, over 216,000 PGWPs were approved for international graduates, an increase of 67% from 2022. And this high-water mark is expected to rise even further by the end of 2024 to nearly 220,000, based on PGWP approvals through the first six months of the year.
This substantial growth in 2023 and 2024 was caused by a few key factors. The first is the overall rise in international students studying in Canada: There were over 1 million study permit holders in Canada as of December 31, 2023, compared to only 530,000 in 2020. The second is the influence of the post-pandemic “double cohort”, where pent-up demand during the pandemic resulted in higher student enrollments in 2022. Given that students must graduate from their program to apply for PGWP, this post-pandemic growth had a delayed impact on PGWP volumes.
Finally, students are placing increased priority on post-graduation work programs. In our latest RP Pulse Survey, post-graduation work opportunities were the second most important factor for students considering studying abroad. This was also reflected in our last Student Pulse Survey, where being able to attain a work visa after graduation was the number one student priority when deciding where to pursue their education.
Next week, we’ll release our Q3 2024 Student Pulse Survey results. Subscribe to ApplyInsights below to ensure you don’t miss our latest insights!
Changes to Canada’s PGWP Program
Despite this rising student focus on post-study work, demand for Canada’s PGWP program is likely to decrease.
On October 4, 2024, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship announced changes to post-graduate work permit eligibility, set to take effect on November 1, 2024. These changes, aimed at aligning student outcomes with Canadian labour market needs, include introducing new proof of language requirements for all PGWP applicants after November 1 as well as field of study limitations for college and non-degree university graduates.2
However, these changes only apply to future students who submit their study permit application on or after November 1, 2024. This means that we’re likely to see a spike in study permit application volumes before the end of October, as students aim to qualify for the previous PGWP program requirements.
The specific effects these updates will have on longer-term student demand are more difficult to quantify. The recent announcement of 2025 and 2026 international student caps was already poised to weaken demand towards Canadian institutions, above and beyond the declines we’ve already seen in 2024.
Equally, it’s important to note that the first students affected by these PGWP field of study policy changes likely won’t graduate until at least 2026.3 The pipeline from initial study permit application to program graduation is typically at least 18 months for short-duration college and non-degree programs, two of the main study levels impacted by the announced changes.
Impact of PGWP Changes on Canadian Colleges and Universities
With new field of study requirements affecting both college and non-degree university graduates, all Canadian post-secondary institutions should anticipate some direct impacts. But Canadian colleges will likely see the largest changes in student demand, especially since they have taught the majority of approved PGWP applicants over the past five years:
From January 2020 to June 2024,4 college graduates accounted for around 60% of all PGWP approvals. There were nearly twice as many PGWPs approved for college graduates as university graduates in 2023, and we expect this trend to continue in 2024.
Starting in 2026, however, this balance will very likely shift towards a more equal proportion of college and university graduates. As graduates from most university programs are exempt from the new PGWP field of study requirements,5 a university degree will allow students to pursue work aligned with their career of choice, regardless of their study program. But the length and cost of university studies will likely remain a barrier for some students, and others will remain more interested in the applied learning environment offered at Canadian colleges.
PGWP Field of Study Eligibility Will Influence Program Choices
To better gauge the specific impact of new field of study requirements, let’s look at field of study trends for college and non-degree university students approved for a PGWP.6
College Graduates
Business and Management programs have been the most popular choice for study permit applicants headed to Canadian colleges over the last five years. In parallel, college grads from these programs have also accounted for the most PGWP approvals:
In 2023, half of all new study permits approved for college students were for business-related programs. In the same year, Business and Management program graduates held 50% of all PGWPs approved for college grads. In fact, these college business graduates accounted for 30% of all PGWPs approved in 2023, across all study levels and fields of study.
Under PGWP’s new labour alignment requirements, many of these graduates would likely be ineligible for a post-study work visa.7 Assuming that at least 75% of business program graduates will soon be ineligible for PGWP, international student populations could decline by 25% or more at Canadian colleges in 2025—beyond the current 2024 declines—based on PGWP field of study trends.
However, this impact may be somewhat mitigated by students who pivot to pursue a different field of study that aligns with the new guidelines. As such, we anticipate that the total volume of international students pursuing a college education in Canada will decline in 2025 and 2026, but likely not by the full magnitude of current business student populations.
Non-Degree University Graduates
By comparison, significantly fewer non-degree university graduates are approved for post-graduation work permits, largely due to fewer students pursuing an education at this study level. In fact, in 2023, fewer than 6,500 PGWPs were approved for these students. That’s less than 5% of the college graduates approved for PGWPs in the same year.
However, like their college counterparts, non-degree university graduates applying for PGWPs are often business program grads:
Through 2023 and the first six months of 2024, nearly two of every three non-degree university grads approved for PGWP completed a Business and Management program. Over 4,000 non-degree business grads received PGWP approval in 2023, compared to just over 2,000 for all other fields of study.
Non-degree studies accounted for only 16% of all new study permit approvals for Canadian universities in 2023. As such, a major drop in non-degree business students could lead to a decline of nearly 10% in new international student cohorts at Canadian universities. Still, compared to colleges, universities are largely insulated from the effects of these PGWP program changes.
Strongest Impact of PGWP Changes Will be Felt by Ontario Colleges
Over the next few years, institutions across Canada must adapt to shifting student demand. But institutions throughout Ontario, particularly Ontario colleges, will be the most impacted by these new PGWP requirements.
This is due to Ontario’s considerable international college student population, compared to the rest of the country:
Last year, the number of Ontario college grads approved for PGWP increased by nearly 120% year-over-year. While PGWP approvals for non-Ontario college grads also rose in 2023, it was at a lower rate of 20%. As a result, Ontario college grads received 75% of all PGWPs approved for college graduates in 2023, and 42% of PGWPs across all study levels in the same year.
As the most popular province for international students pursuing college programs, Ontario is in line to experience the greatest demand volatility in the years to come. Although we expect PGWP approvals for Ontario college grads to decline slightly in 2024, before new PGWP requirements take effect, study permit caps and field of study limitations for future years will likely cause this decline to persist into 2025 and beyond.
New Post-Graduate Work Policies Aim to Improve Student Success
ApplyBoard has long recognized that PGWP reforms have the potential to ultimately benefit students, institutions, and regions across Canada. Aligning Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit program eligibility with labour market needs can help to ensure the continued success of international students while encouraging Canadian economic growth. But coupled with recent cap announcements for 2025, Canada’s brand as a welcoming destination for international students has weakened and institutions will need to take on a greater role promoting the benefits of studying in Canada.
These multiple recent policy changes mean that it will be difficult to fully gauge the effects of field of study requirements on overall student demand in the months and years ahead. We know that business programs, especially at Canadian colleges, are extremely likely to see decreased international student enrollment for all cohorts after November 1, 2024. But what is unclear is whether students will shift their preferences towards PGWP-eligible programs like STEM college programs or university degrees, or if they will consider other study abroad destinations instead.
Health care and STEM will be the highest in-demand sectors for jobs in the next decade, and ApplyBoard students are shifting their interest toward these fields.
Looking Ahead
Ultimately, access to a post-study work visa is a vital consideration for many prospective international students. While current international students—and those who have already submitted a study permit application—will be minimally affected by the latest PGWP changes, these policies will have lasting impacts on Canada’s international education sector and economy. Declining student demand may also lead Canadian institutions to make difficult decisions such as delaying or cancelling housing projects, cutting programs, and raising tuition fees for domestic students.
In uncertain times, maximizing conversion rates will become more important than ever for Canadian institutions. For strategic advice and data-backed guidance on how your Canadian institution can improve conversion rates while driving student diversity, please contact your Partner Relations Manager. Or, contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com to start a conversation.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. All data is sourced from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) unless otherwise noted.
2. Field of study requirements are linked to certain occupations in long-term shortage, based on Classification of Instruction Programs (CIP) codes.
3. Taking into account the time frames between student study permit application submission, IRCC processing and approval, the student coming to Canada and beginning their studies, and the student’s graduation from their selected program.
4. More recent IRCC not available at this time.
5. Bachelor’s, master’s, and PhD graduates are all exempt from IRCC’s new PGWP field of study requirements for students who submit their study permit application after November 1, 2024.
6. Field of study is the most granular level of IRCC data available related to program enrollment.
7. Some transport-related fields of study that often fall under Business program designations—such as transportation management and logistics, materials, and supply chain management—as well as agribusiness programs remain eligible under prescribed CIP classifications.
