Global Media Sentiment, Google Searches Suggest Shrinking Demand for Big Four

Many international students conduct hours of online research into where they want to study, and what it will look like to study abroad. Increasingly, their online searches are returning negative news, outlining many of the challenges that the international education sector, and students themselves, are facing in 2024. Globally, at least 13% of online, English-only media contained negative coverage about international students in Canada, the US, the UK, or Australia.¹

At the same time, average monthly keyword searches for studying in these destinations are declining. These factors—global media sentiment and average keyword searches—can be leading indicators of how demand for international education sectors may grow or shrink in destination countries.

To help illuminate these potential shifts, we’re diving into the latest sentiment and keyword trends below. Read on to see which international student populations are being exposed to the most polarizing content and which destination countries are seeing keyword searches drop below pre-pandemic levels.

Throughout this article, all references to sentiment data refer to the proportional amount of media coverage. For example, “20% negative coverage” would mean that 20% of all relevant media coverage was negative. Any discussion related to volume of coverage will be noted as such.

Global Sentiment About Studying in Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia Grows More Polarizing

Global coverage about international students in the big four English destinations surpassed 10% negativity through June 2024. This was the first instance post-pandemic that all four destination countries saw their proportion of negative sentiment reach double digits at the same time. However, as the graphic below shows, positive sentiment about 3 of the 4 destinations also grew:

Negative global coverage about international students in the big four is up substantially in 2024 over previous years. For Canada, the 19% negative coverage was nearly quadruple the negative sentiment observed in 2021. Over this same period, negative sentiment about the UK nearly tripled, and it nearly doubled about the US, while Australia’s 17% negative coverage was up about six percentage points.

The growth in negative coverage since 2021 makes it surprising that positive coverage also grew significantly. Positive sentiment about the US reached 35% in 2024, more than twice what it was in 2021. And positive coverage about both the UK (33%) and Australia (29%) was up 11 percentage points over this period.

In 2024, negative sentiment about Canada surpassed positive sentiment. This was the first (and only) instance of negative sentiment surpassing positive sentiment for any of the destination countries during the observed period.

These trends—that the proportions of negative and positive coverage are up—suggest that international students are being exposed to more polarizing content about the big four English destinations. The volume of media stories about each country has increased year-over-year since the pandemic, with 2024 on pace to set new highs. At the same time, neutrality in that coverage has declined year-over-year over the past three years. In fact, the proportion of neutral stories declined by at least 16 percentage points for each destination country from 2021 to 2024. In short, negative news is getting more traction, but so too is positive news.

Global Social Media Trends Show Rising Negativity About Studying in Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia

While media coverage is increasingly polar, many students are also turning to social media to find out more about their ideal study abroad destinations. Neutral global coverage on social media about international students in the big four English destinations also shrank from 2023 to 2024. But unlike its traditional news counterpart, social media has seen a far greater rise in negative coverage than it has positive:

Negative social media coverage about Australia grew to 28% in 2024, which was an increase of 17 percentage points over 2023 and the largest swing among the four destinations. The UK had the largest proportion of negative coverage over this time period, reaching 33% in the first half of 2024. It was also the only country to see positive sentiment decline year-over-year.

Positive social media sentiment about the US (20%) nearly tripled in 2024 over 2023. Meanwhile, positive posts about Australia (18%) and Canada (15%) increased by only one percentage point, meaning the US was the only destination in which positive sentiment increased by more than one percentage point. But negative sentiment about the US also grew significantly in 2024 as it reached 15%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the previous year.

Negative social media sentiment about Canada grew to 22% in 2024, an increase of seven percentage points over the previous year.

Which Student Populations See the Most Polarizing International Education Content about Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia?

Since the data shows polarizing content is on the rise, we investigated if some international student populations are being exposed to more polarizing content than others. The chart below allows you to see how online news sentiment has evolved in some of the largest source countries for international students:⁴

India accounted for at least 40% of the overall volume of media stories about each destination market in 2023 and 2024. This means the trendlines for India follow the global trendlines much closer than other source countries. Still, there are some significant differences. India’s proportion of positive stories is higher than the global average for all four destination countries in 2024, including a stunning 41% for the US and 38% for Australia. But India also has more negative stories about the North American destinations than the global average.

News coverage in Nigeria has grown much more negative year-over-year since the pandemic. In 2021, negative sentimentality was miniscule for Canada (2%), the US (2%), and the UK (3%), with Australia seeing the most at just 7%. But through June 2024, only the US (8%) received single-digit negative sentiment. The proportion of positive stories has declined for three of the four destinations during the first half of 2024.

Over 22% of online English news in Nigeria about international students in the US has been positive through June 2024, double the positive coverage of 2021.

In China, positive sentiment in English media has mostly been on the rise year-over-year since 2021, while negative sentiment has declined. Nearly 51% of stories about international students in the UK have been positive through June 2024, with both Australia (42%) and the US (40%) not far behind.

Conversely, coverage in Vietnam’s online media has grown markedly more negative and less positive about all four destinations post-pandemic. Negative stories about the UK jumped from 2% in 2021 to a startling 26% in 2024. And Canada and Australia aren’t far behind, with negative coverage tripling for both countries (up to 21% and 22%, respectively) over this period.

“Study in” Searches for Big Four English Destinations on the Decline

This polarizing content coincides with shrinking demand from international students for the big four English destinations. The chart below shows that the average monthly keyword search for “study in [destination country]” dropped significantly across the board in 2024 (year ending June):

The average monthly keyword search for “study in Canada” (19,700) was down 18% compared to 2023 and has dropped below 2017 levels. What’s more, searches from within India dropped considerably. The 6,600 average monthly searches in 2024 was 45% below the volume of 2020, 2021, and 2022.

From 2023 to 2024, the keyword search for the US and UK dropped 25% and 23%, respectively, with the volume from India declining 33% for both destinations over this period.⁵ The keyword search for Australia was the smallest year-over-year decline, dropping 9% globally and 18% in India over the same period.

While we can’t conclusively link the rise of polarized content to the decline of search interest, the correlation is significant and worth monitoring moving forward.

ApplyBoard’s latest Student Pulse Survey and Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey both showed that more students are considering destinations beyond the big four.

Key Takeaways

International students are, generally, being exposed to more polarizing content in their home countries about studying in Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia. The volume of reporting is rising, and neutral sentiment in that coverage is shifting more toward the negative and the positive.

Policies and developments—such as visa caps or limiting post-graduate work opportunities—that may impede the mobility goals of international students are seeing much more global exposure than in the past. This means governments and schools in destination countries cannot take the success of their international education sector for granted. The average monthly keyword searches for studying in the big four English destinations are down significantly in 2024 over 2023, which could be a leading indicator of future contraction.

Indeed, in last year’s Trends Report, we highlighted that the big four are facing more competition from non-Anglophone markets than ever before. Recent reports show that countries across Europe are witnessing a record number of students from India. And we’ve previously explored the trend-setting power of Indian interest—European countries seeing record numbers of Indian students today may see record numbers of non-Indian students tomorrow.

With that in mind, institutions would do well to amplify positive stories about how they’re helping international students. It’ll be important for schools to leverage new student-friendly developments, such as new scholarships or degree-to-career pathways, to drive positive sentiment about the sector.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All sentiment data courtesy of Meltwater, and limited to online, English-only media. We’ve removed media coverage from Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia from the global analysis.

2. Social media data limited to X (formerly Twitter), and to the April 2023 to June 2024 period.

3. All keyword search data courtesy of Semrush. This data measures the average number of monthly searches over a 12-month period ending June of the given year. For example, “2024” would mean the period of July 2023 to June 2024.

4. As a reminder, this data captures online, English-only sources only.

5. For the US, we’re specifically using the “study in USA” keyphrase, as it had the most volume out of “study in US,” “study in the US,” “study in the USA,” “study in the United States,” and “study in the United States.” For the UK, “study in UK” had more volume than “study in the UK.”