Throughout 2024, stakeholders from across the education sector have expressed strong concerns about changes to Canada’s International Student Program. These concerns range from a downturn in the number of international students applying to the economic impact that this shift in demand may have. While the federal government’s cap on study permit1 applications was designed to increase the sector’s sustainability, data from the first half of the year shows the cap may have contributed to chilling demand to the extent that the government’s projections for 2024 will not be met.2
High-profile policy changes like the increased proof of finances amount and study permit application cap have undoubtedly shifted students’ outlook on Canada. So, what can we expect the rest of 2024 to hold? Taking into account past and ongoing study permit application trends, we’re projecting a 39% drop in global applications for Canadian study permits in 2024 compared to 2023.
Read on to explore this projection in further detail, as well as a closer look at how the policy changes have affected student interest in different provinces and for various levels of study so far this year.
Key Insights at a Glance
- The number of new study permit applications processed by the Canadian government dropped by 54% in Q2 2024 versus Q2 2023. Year over year, we project the number of applications processed to drop by 39% in 2024.3
- If current trends hold, around 230,000 new study permits will be processed in the second half of 2024.
- If the study permit processing projection above is accurate, and the study permit approval rate stays at 51%, we estimate that just over 231,000 new study permits will be approved in 2024. This projected approval count is roughly 47% lower than the 436,600 new study permits which were approved in 2023.
Canadian Study Permit Applications and Approvals Down in the First Six Months of 2024
Earlier this year, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced that the number of study permit applications they would process in 2024 would be capped at 606,000.3
Based on this processing cap, and an average study permit approval rate of 60%, the government determined that the total number of new study permits they aimed to approve in 2024 was 364,000. This total approval figure comprised two pools of applications. First, the government used past student visa trends and current provincial population data to set a target of 292,0004 study permits approved for non-exempt study levels (revised from the initial calculation of 236,000).5 This was then added to last year’s number of approved student visas in exempt study levels (128,000).
Yet, based on data from the first half of 2024, both application and approval volumes are lagging behind government targets. In Q2 of 2024 (April to June), 127,700 new study permits were processed by IRCC. In comparison, nearly 238,800 study permit applications were processed in Q2 last year, representing a year-over-year drop of 54%.6
Below, we project how many new study permit applications (for both cap-exempt and non-exempt study levels) will be processed in H2 2024 if demand remains steady from Q2 through Q3 and Q4:
For the Q3 and Q4 2024 projections, we used the 54% decline in study permits processed between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024 to calculate the projected number of processed study permits. However, the full-year projection varies due to stronger application volumes in Q1. As such, overall, we project that 39% fewer new study permits will be processed in 2024 compared to 2023.
This decrease is mirrored in the number of study permits approved as well. From January to June 2024, just under 114,000 new study permits were approved for post-secondary study, compared to nearly 220,000 over the same period in 2023. That’s a drop of 48%.
It’s also worth noting that the average study permit approval rate dropped from 58% to 51% YOY (through the first six months of 2023 and 2024), both of which are lower than the government’s study permit approval rate target of 60% for 2024.7 While it’s possible the approval rate may improve in July–December 2024, to max out the full number of possible study permits, demand would have to rise as well. With an estimated 230,000 study permits projected to be processed in the last half of the year, even an approval rate of 100% would not be enough, given that only 114,000 study permits were approved in the first six months of 2024.8
New Study Permit Approvals Likely to Return to 2018–2019 Levels by End of 2024
If the post-secondary study permit approval rate remains at 51% for the rest of 2024, we project that just over 117,000 post-secondary study permits will be approved in H2 2024 (Jul–Dec). Combined with the 114,000 new study permits approved in H1 2024 (Jan–Jun), the total number of post-secondary approved study permits in 2024 would be just over 231,000. Study permits for K-12 students will add to this total, but are a smaller portion of permits approved.
Ultimately, unless the number of applications and the overall approval rate increase, it’s unlikely the cap will be hit:
While K-12 study permit approvals are likely to bump up our 2024 projection, we project that the full-year study permit approval numbers will look a lot more like they did in 2018 and 2019, in the mid 200,000s.
This shift in demand may have a far-reaching and long-lasting effect, as international students help to drive our global economy. They spur innovation and support millions of jobs, both in their home countries and study destinations.
Study Permit Processing in First Half of 2024 Matched 2022 Levels, But Expect Second Half to Fall Much Lower
In our first look at 2024 study permit data, we saw that March was the first month where the total number of new study permits processed for post-secondary programs was lower than in 2023. This trend continued through Q2 2024, with monthly numbers sometimes less than half of what they were in 2023. To better understand this shift, and how processing levels have changed over the past few years, let’s take a high-level look at all new study permit applications (K-12 and post-secondary) processed in the first half of the calendar year:
One thing that jumps out is that the number of study permits processed in H1 of 2022 and H1 of 2024 is fairly similar. In fact, only 665 more permits were processed from January to June of 2024 compared to the same period two years ago. So, could it be argued that permit processing is returning to form, and 2023 was an outlier? The answer isn’t that simple.
Where the number of processed permits was roughly even through each month of the first half of 2022, with June’s numbers increasing, that isn’t true for 2024. Processing numbers for January and February 2024 were markedly higher than the following months. This is because average study permit processing times were 9 to 10 weeks in late 2023 and early 2024, meaning that most if not all of the permits processed in Jan–Feb 2024 were submitted before the government’s cap was in effect. Then, permit processing slowed through March and April as provincial attestation letter (PAL) systems were designed and added to the study permit application procedure.
By Q2 2024, study permit applications submitted before the caps would have largely been processed. So, the drop in permits processed can be attributed both to students who paused or deferred their study permit application and to others who pivoted to different destinations. As demand is not expected to recover in the immediate future, it is unlikely to see 2024 processing numbers match those of 2022.
The Caps’ Effect on Capped and Cap-Exempt Post-Secondary Programs
So far in 2024, the number of processed study permit applications are down across the board for post-secondary programs. In Q1 2024, applications decreased by 26% year-over-year for programs affected by the study permit caps. Cap-exempt programs (master’s and doctoral degree programs) also saw a YOY dip of 21%.
This downwards trend continued through Q2 2024, as shown in the visualization below. We’ve used the delta between Q2 2024 numbers and Q2 2023 numbers to project how many capped and cap-exempt post-secondary study permits may be processed in Q3 and Q4:
In Q2 2024, processed study permit volumes for programs under the caps slowed by 58% compared to Q2 2023. In comparison, cap-exempt programs in the most recent quarter changed less drastically. Applications processed for cap-exempt programs dipped by 25% in Q2 2024, just four percentage points less than Q1 2024’s YOY change.
If conditions remain similar through the end of 2024, the number of processed study permit applications could be 50% lower this year for capped post-secondary programs, and 24% lower for cap-exempt programs.
Study Permit Processing Times Stabilize
However, it’s worth noting that study permit processing times were at their highest point over the last three years in Q2 2024. If processing times improve in Q3 and Q4, it’s possible more study permits will be processed than were estimated above.
Faster average study permit processing times compared to spring 2024 are an indicator that the sector has adjusted to recent process changes:
The average study permit processing time was 7 weeks in August 2024, nearly half of what it was in April and May (14 to 15 weeks). At the time of publishing, the average study permit processing time was 5 or 6 weeks for many student populations. This is similar to some of IRCC’s speediest processing times in 2023. It is encouraging that many students are receiving the results of their application faster than in previous years, as quicker processing times enable them to plan their study abroad journeys more proactively.
Provincial Trends Reflect National Slowdown
Many academic institutions have been eager to determine how the different Canadian provinces have been affected by policy changes like the study permit cap. Taking a closer look at Q2 data from 2023 and 2024, it’s clear that July and August are two of the busiest months for study permit processing. This means that we won’t know the full scale of the impact of study permit process changes until later this year:
When the caps were announced, it was clear Ontario and British Columbia (BC) would be the most affected. These two provinces are home to the largest international student populations, yet Ontario was slated to receive 41% fewer study permit approvals in 2024, while 18% fewer study permit approvals would be given to students attending institutions in BC.
However, processing volume declines have outpaced these intended decreases. 49% fewer post-secondary study permits for BC institutions were processed in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023. Meanwhile, 70% fewer post-secondary study permit applications were processed for Ontario-bound students over the same period. While implementing the provincial attestation letter process essentially paused processing in early 2024, this large swing in processing numbers make it likely that approvals will be lower than the government’s targets.
Other provinces (Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, and Saskatchewan) were allotted more room to grow under the study permit caps. While the number of study permits processed for Quebec stayed relatively stable through the first half of 2023 and 2024, the other three provinces saw sizable YOY drops in study permit processing numbers for Q2 2024.
As emerging provincial destinations for international students, the Maritimes (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island) saw their international student populations swell in 2023. However, lower 2024 study permit processing numbers across the board in Q1 and Q2 points to the likelihood of a smaller influx of students in 2024. This suggests that student demand from applicants who might have previously applied to institutions in BC or Ontario did not entirely shift to other provinces, but instead likely shifted towards other destination countries entirely.
Shifts in Student Populations Reflect Changing Environment
In H1 2024, 55,500 post-secondary study permits were approved for Indian students. This accounted for 49% of Canada’s incoming international post-secondary students, the same percentage as full-year 2023 and only slightly lower than H1 2023 (51%). With a study permit approval rate of 85% in Jan–Jun 2024, prospective Indian students aren’t being rejected at significant rates. Instead, the lower volume of submitted study permit applications in H1 2024 suggests that their interest in Canada continues to wane.
Indian students aren’t alone in considering different study abroad options. In fact, global searches for “study in Canada” are almost 20% lower than they were in 2023, pointing to shifts in the landscape as other destinations gain ground, and a weakening of Canada’s overall brand with prospective students.
When we look at some of the student populations who received the highest number of study permit approvals in 2023, H1 2024 (January to June) approval numbers are much lower than H1 2023, although there are exceptions like China, Ghana, and Guinea:
The difference in the number of approved study permits for Nigerian students between 2023 and 2024 is striking. At 28% of the H1 2023 amount, Nigerian students remained a top three student population in Canada in 2024, but the effect of their lower study permit approval rate is clear. This number of Nigerian approvals is also surprising as Canada was thought to be well-positioned to welcome Nigerian students dissuaded from studying in the United Kingdom due to the UK’s dependants policy change in 2023.
Similarly, H1 2024 approvals for Nepal (1,981) and the Philippines (3,253) are well below where they were at this point last year, respectively reaching 24% and 34% of their H1 2023 levels.
To understand what trends are driving international study in the UK, and how its international student populations are shifting, check out our analysis of the latest Home Office data.
Key Takeaways
Policy updates including the study permit cap have certainly affected how international students perceive Canada as a study abroad destination. While these measures were intended to ensure international education remains sustainable for years to come, they have had an immediate effect on student demand. Study permit approval numbers in the first half of 2024 illustrate the importance of recruiting a diverse range of student populations, especially as demand levels can fluctuate rapidly, particularly when external factors like inflation and currency devaluation reduce student mobility.
Given depressed student demand, rising global student interest in diversified study destinations, and a lower study permit approval rate, we expect that 2025 study permit cap levels will climb above 2024 levels. We’ve already seen some evidence of targeted program launches to attract specific student demographics, such as the Francophone Minority Communities Student Pilot which will enable up to 2,300 French-speaking international students to study in French at institutions across Canada in its first year. While Canada is still perceived as a safe and high-quality destination, this data shows that Canada’s ability to attract new students is capable of changing quickly, causing ripple effects across the international education sector.
As a sector leader in document verification and agent training, ApplyBoard works with institutions across Canada to streamline international student recruitment. Our services help to reduce administrative time, proof key application documents, and more. Our work to ensure higher conversion rates can make a meaningful difference both to your institution and hopeful international students. For data-backed guidance on how you can maximize conversion rates, please contact your Partner Relations Manager. Or, contact ApplyBoard’s Partner Relations team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com to start a conversation.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. For the purposes of this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.
2. All data is sourced from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada unless otherwise noted.
3. Not all study permit applications processed by IRCC are approved. See the third Key Insight bullet for our projection of how many new permits we expect to be approved in full-year 2024.
4. The initial calculation for study permits approved for capped programs was 236,000. (236,000+128,000=364,000). However, to balance out the impact of the caps, the government adjusted their calculations in April to project that closer to 292,000 study permits would be approved in 2024.
5. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. “Minister Miller issues statement on international student allocations for provinces and territories.” April 5, 2024.
6. As of January 2024, study permit applications to many post-secondary study programs were capped by IRCC. However, study permit applications to master’s degree, doctoral degree, and primary/secondary school (K-12) programs were exempt from the cap, meaning IRCC wouldn’t limit the number of applications they processed for these programs.
7. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. “Source Countries – Applications Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications (in Persons) by Month, from January 2021 to June 2024.” Public data sheet.
8. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. “Minister Miller issues…” April 5, 2024.
9. To calculate the number of approved permits needed to reach the cap level for 2024, we first subtracted the 114,000 approved permits in H1 2024 from 364,000 (total approvals) to get 250,000 as the target number for H2. As 250,000 is higher than the projected number of processed post-secondary study permits for H2 2024 (230,000), and primary and secondary school permits would not add significantly enough to this projected amount, we concluded that an improved approval rate alone would not be enough to max out the caps.
