Navigating Change: The Latest on the UK’s Graduate Route and Study Visas

It’s been a busy month for international education in the United Kingdom. Following the recent Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) review, which recommended no changes to the structure of the Graduate Route visa, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unexpectedly called for a July election. Just a day later, the UK Home Office released new data, revealing significant insights into the first quarter of 2024 for the UK’s international education sector.

In this article, we’ll analyze this new Home Office data to highlight the latest international education trends in the UK. Read on for discussions around the aftermath of the June 2023 dependants policy announcement and the implications of the MAC review for students and institutions.

UK Sees Full-Year Decrease in New International Students for the First Time in Three Years

In the year ending March 2024, over 446,000 study visas were granted to main applicants in the UK, marking a 6.2% decrease from the previous year.¹ This was the first decline in study visa issuances since 2021 and the first decrease in a non-pandemic year since 2016.

Here’s a look at the growth of study visas issued to main applicants over the last six years:

The recent Home Office data release is significant because it’s the first data that reflects on international student trends since the UK imposed restrictions preventing international students from bringing family members with them. And despite the September 2023/24 intake data representing the majority of main applicant visas during the calendar year, this early Home Office data suggests pretty convincingly that students might already be opting for other study destinations.

Over the past five years, 65% of UK main applicant student visas were issued between July and September.

Part of this shift may have been driven by concern that the government would further tighten immigration measures this year by shortening or even abolishing the Graduate Route visa program. Now that it’s all but confirmed that there will be no changes to the programs, students may reconsider the UK as a study destination.

The attractiveness of the UK as a study abroad destination is also helped by significant policy changes in other major destination countries. In 2024, most major destination markets are planning to or have already implemented measures to control the volume of international students. Canada’s international student cap and Australia’s plans to impose a student cap in 2025 present complications for institutions and prospective students alike. With these changes in motion, many different student mobility scenarios could unfold. And, while we will need to wait for fall enrollment data to fully understand the impact of policy changes in all markets, the UK still has strong potential for growth in the 2024 calendar year.

Policy Impact on the UK’s Top Student Populations

Nearly 70% of the study visas granted in 2024 were to students from the top five markets by volume: India, China, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States. Let’s take a look at how these markets have evolved in recent years:

We’re used to spotlighting India for the growing number of international students it sends to the UK each year. And although India narrowly claimed the top spot over China with over 116,000 study visas in the year ending March 2024, that was a 15.7% drop from their high mark set in 2023. While the dependants policy likely played some part in this decline, Indian students brought dependants with them at the exact same rate as the UK average in 2023: 0.31 dependants per main applicant.

Other variables, such as uncertainty surrounding the Graduate Route or general hesitancy to commit during a change-packed year, could also be driving down new student populations from India.

Looking further down the list, Nigeria was the country we expected to take the biggest step back in terms of new student population, following the dependants policy announcement. Nigerians accounted for more dependants than main applicants in 2023, so this shift was projected to disincentivize Nigerians from studying in the UK.

In the year ending March 2024, Nigerians were granted 38% fewer study visas than in the year ending March 2023, trailing only Bangladesh, which saw a 39% YOY decline. With Nigerians highly prioritizing bringing family with them during their studies, the dependents policy may put a ceiling on the growth of what was seen to be one of the UK’s highest potential source countries just 12 months ago.

However, there are some definite bright spots in these Home Office numbers. China (+7.8%) and Pakistan (+23.1%) both posted significant new student population increases this year, pointing towards the long-term stability of both of these markets. China is particularly interesting given that most of its declining UK student numbers in previous years were largely due to domestic issues. Chinese students bring virtually no dependants with them (0.01) and are not particularly reliant on the Graduate Route. If their strong interest in the UK continues, it could provide a significant backstop to combat the declining numbers from other top source markets.

Nepal Tops List of Fastest-Growing UK Student Populations in 2024

Of the 10 largest source countries the UK in the year ending 2024, six of them declined in size compared to the previous year. If these trends continue, we may see the rise of new major source countries sooner than expected, including a greater concentration of students from the Middle East.

Here are the top 10 fastest-growing nationalities by study visas issued from 2023 to 2024:

Nepal is the standout story on this list. In 2024, Nepalese students were granted over 9,000 study visas, marking a 70% increase from the previous year. This surge makes Nepal the fastest-growing source country for the UK, leapfrogging several major markets including Nigeria and Iran, and moving from the seventh-fastest-growing country in 2023 to the top of the list this year.

Unlike many other countries, Nepal seems unaffected by policy changes related to dependants or postgraduate work programs. This stability and high growth potential make Nepal an exciting prospect for the UK’s international student market. With a student-age population (16-25 years old) of over 6.5 million, comprising 21% of its total population, Nepal is a market to watch closely.²

Other bright spots among the fastest-growing student populations in the UK include Ghana and Iran, which were both expected to be negatively impacted by the dependants policy. In the year ending March 2024, Ghana had a 0.62 dependant-to-main-applicant ratio and Iran had a 0.54 ratio—both nearly double the UK average. Their presence on this list is encouraging, suggesting that bringing family is only one factor influencing students’ decisions from these countries.

Stay tuned as we continue to monitor these trends and what they mean for the future of international education in the UK.

MAC Review Supports Graduate Route Stability

Following the implementation of the dependants policy, many in the UK’s international education sector feared that changes to the graduate route would follow. Contrary to these concerns, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has recommended retaining the Graduate Route in its current form. Although the government has yet to formally respond, several sources indicate they are likely to endorse the MAC’s recommendation for this popular postgraduate visa program.

At ApplyBoard, we are heartened by the UK’s reaffirmation of its commitment to international students. Our Spring 2024 Student Pulse Survey revealed that four out of five students are interested in postgraduate studies, underscoring the importance of the Graduate Route as a significant incentive.

This program not only provides students with valuable work experience but also enriches the talent pool for employers across various sectors. Whether students use this opportunity as a stepping stone to permanent residency or to enhance their careers back home, the Graduate Route is a win-win for all.

The retention of the Graduate Route is poised to positively influence the growth of study visas in the UK in 2024 and beyond. Students who were previously uncertain about studying in a country with an ambiguous postgraduate work program can now apply with confidence about their prospects as graduates.

Let’s take a look at how the Graduate Route has grown over the past few years.

Graduate Route Highly Sought-After in 2024

The Graduate Route has gained popularity each year since it was rolled out in 2021. According to a recent analysis, the proportion of students granted further leave to remain in the UK after their studies has more than tripled, from 18% in 2019 to 56% in 2023.

Up until December 2023, there were over 114,000 work visas issued to main applicants via the Graduate Route. Here’s what that breakdown looks like by nationality:

Indian graduates represented the largest group of students on the Graduate Route, with 42% of the visas granted to former students from India.

More than half of UK Graduate visa holders as of December 2023 were aged between 24 and 29.

Nigeria (12%), China (10%), and Pakistan (7%) followed as the next most represented nationalities. Although the dependants policy raises legitimate concerns about Nigeria’s long-term growth potential in the UK, a positive aspect is that Nigerian graduates are the most likely to find work among all nationalities pursuing the Graduate Route. This success in the job market may help mitigate some of the negative impacts caused by the dependants policy.

Key Takeaways

The retention of the Graduate Route signals a commitment to maintaining the UK as a competitive destination for international students. We see stability in postgraduate work opportunities as reassurance for prospective students, which could potentially reverse the recent decline in study visa applications.

However, the new data underscores a nuanced reality: while some markets like Nepal and China are showing promising growth, others such as Nigeria and India face significant challenges due to policy shifts like the dependants policy. The decline in these major markets could have long-term implications for the diversity of the UK’s international student population.

Looking ahead, the global competition for international students is intensifying. Countries like Canada and Australia are implementing caps and other measures to control the influx of international students, which may inadvertently push more students towards the UK if it maintains more favourable policies. Yet, this also means the UK must continuously adapt its strategies to attract and retain top talent.

These trends suggest that institutions should focus on support systems for international students, addressing not only academic needs but also post-graduation employment opportunities and integration into the job market. By doing so, the UK can remain competitive in the dynamic landscape of international education in 2024.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of The UK Home Office, unless otherwise stated.

2. Nepal Census 2021, Census’s Publication and Reports. 2021.