On the heels of the news that the UK would begin restricting most international students from bringing dependants with them, conversations emerged all over the international education industry. The looming question: what fallout would this trigger?1
In a recent ApplyInsights, we explored the ramifications of this decision within the UK. Today, we delve into the dependant landscape in other top destinations: the US, Australia, and Canada. We’ll analyze recent data to explore dependency trends in these destinations, pinpoint students most keen on bringing dependants, and dissect the UK’s policy impact on other markets.
Key Insights at a Glance
- India, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea accounted for the bulk of dependant inflows in the US during FY2022.
- Nearly 26,000 new dependants of international students entered the US in FY2022, exceeding FY2019.
- Australia’s attractive policies, including extended post-graduation stays, are likely to make it a rising destination for students and their families.
- Dependant totals in Australia during 2023 saw a remarkable surge of 118%, after a modest annual growth rate of 8% from 2005 to 2022.
Navigating US Dependant Regulations
While stringent rules apply for students intending to bring dependants to the US, family members can still join them during their studies. US dependant visa processing can take around 90 days via US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), with dependants ineligible for work and social security numbers.2
Despite all this, the US was the most popular destination for international students to bring dependants in fiscal year 2019, beating out the likes of both Australia and the UK.3 Let’s examine what the evolution of dependants in the US has looked like over the past seven years:
The US welcomed more dependants each year than Australia or the UK from 2010 to 2019, though that number decreased in each subsequent year. Concerns around the Trump administration’s anti-immigration stance, coupled with the inability for dependants to work, may have discouraged international students from bringing their families with them to study in the US, or encouraged them to look elsewhere to study.
In FY2020, the US experienced a 60% decline in F-2 visas issued due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But ever since, dependant numbers have rebounded in a big way. Nearly 26,000 new F-2 visas were granted in the US in FY2022, exceeding FY2019.
Is the number of F-2 visas issued likely to continue to climb, or is this spike a temporary product of international students and their families looking to escape sliding economies at home? Let’s look at which countries are driving the rebound of F-2 visas in the US:
Six countries—India, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Bangladesh, Brazil, and Nigeria—accounted for nearly half of all dependants of international students coming to the US during FY2022. But volume doesn’t tell the whole story.
The average F2-to-F1 visa ratio in the US in FY2022 was 0.06. India, the country issued the most dependant visas, boasted just a 0.03 ratio last year. Saudi Arabia (0.47), Bangladesh (0.23), and Nigeria (0.19) possessed much higher ratios, meaning bringing family along is a higher priority for students from these countries.
The Ripple Effect of the UK’s Policy Change
It’s interesting to consider how the recent UK policy change could boost the number of US dependants from certain nationalities.
Take India for example. In the UK, India had a 0.31 dependant-to-main applicant ratio in the year ending March 2023, which was right in line with the average ratio for all countries. In the US, India’s FY2022 F-2-to-F-1 visa ratio was 50% lower than the global average.
Now, Indian students who wish to bring dependants with them to the UK will be faced with a choice—leave their family at home, or choose a different destination that allows them to bring dependants.
With its restrictions on dependants working, the US is more likely to attract international students from more affluent backgrounds, whose spouses don’t need to work while they’re abroad.4 The US’s high-prestige institutions will be a draw for top students who are committed to bringing their families with them to study despite the work restriction.
Look for Nigeria and Bangladesh to join India as countries that should see a significant boost in dependant totals in FY2023. These were three of the top four dependant markets in the UK in 2023.5 This crossover, F-2 visa growth, and higher F-2-to-F-1 visa ratios among this group combine to make these countries prime candidates to help the US benefit from the UK’s decision to reduce its dependants totals.
Australia’s Rising Attraction for Families
In the last 12 months, Australia has made significant strides towards making itself a more attractive destination for international students and their dependants.
When applying for an Australian student visa, the main applicant has the option to include parents, spouses, siblings, or children as dependants. Visa application charges are A$470 for applicants 18 and over, and A$155 for children under 18.
In February of 2023, Australia increased post-graduation work periods allotted to international students at all study levels. Six months later, the Australian government announced it may allow international students to immigrate via education as Australia seeks to bolster its workforce.
New Australian data indicates that half a million international students were granted a primary visa in 2022/23, a 42% increase over the previous record high.
International students staying in Australia longer means we could see growth start to snowball. Here’s what the evolution of dependants in Australia has looked like since 2016:
Dependant totals in Australia grew slowly over the past two decades, with an average YOY growth rate of 8% from 2005-06 to 2021-22. But in 2022-23, the number of new dependants in Australia skyrocketed, growing by 118% compared to the previous year.
Part of this growth can be attributed to a post-COVID rebound of students and their dependants who were unable to travel to Australia during the pandemic. Looking at the numbers, students with dependants were more likely to cancel their study abroad plans during the pandemic than students without children:
Dependant numbers didn’t fall as far as main applicants following the pandemic, but they took much longer to rebound. From 2020 to 2022, dependant totals in Australia decreased, while main applicants fell by 33% before increasing the following two years.
The jump in dependants seen in 2022-23 is likely a product of the backlog of students with dependants that elected to wait an additional year before pursuing their education.
As the number of students wishing to immigrate to Australia increases, it’s logical that dependants should should also trend up. Where are those dependants coming from? Let’s look at the top sources of dependants in Australia in FY2023:
In 2022-23, the average ratio of dependants to main applicants was 0.15. Most nations in the top 10 hovered around that number, with the exception of two. Mongolia (0.94) and Saudi Arabia (1.1) were the only two source markets in 2022-23 to possess a dependant-to-main applicant ratio north of 0.3.
India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, and Nepal were five of the top eight sources of dependants in the UK in the year ending March 2023, and all boast above average dependant ratios in Australia. These countries look to be the biggest beneficiaries from the UK’s policy change.
2023-24 will be the first full calendar year since the UK’s policy change was announced, and may also include a new policy from the Australian government—one which will attract international students and their dependants who are keen on immigrating down under. Get ready for a surge in applications from family-focused students in Australia, partly due to a decision made on the other side of the world.
Canada Stands to be a Big Beneficiary of UK Policy Change
Unfortunately, Canada does not make available data on dependants of international students. However, Canada remains one of, if not the most, attractive destinations for international students who hope to immigrate with their families.
In Canada, dependants of international students can either apply for a study permit, work permit or a visitor visa. The main applicant must submit their dependant’s application online with their own. In addition to the minimum funds you need as a student, family members must show C$4,000 for the first family member, and C$3,000 for each additional family member.
Despite recent concerns raised about dual intent in Canada, its Post-Graduation Work Permit Program (PGWPP) provides a clearly defined avenue for international students and their immediate family members (spouses and young children) to stay in Canada to gain the post-graduate work experience necessary to apply for permanent residency.
It’s safe to assume that Canada will see increased numbers of international students and dependants as a result of the UK policy change, but it’s difficult to measure just how much the needle will move.
There’s considerable overlap between the top source markets in Canada and the top dependant markets in the UK. Look for India, Nigeria and Nepal—three countries with high student visa totals in Canada and high dependency totals in the UK—to be a large source of international students with dependants in Canada in 2024.
Trends, Policies, and the Future of Dependants
The implications of this policy change will ripple through key destinations like the US, Australia, and Canada, each with their own unique perspectives on student dependants.
In terms of which destinations stand to benefit the most from this policy change and how, there are a few key indicators. The US looks well positioned to attract students with dependants from both Bangladesh and Nigeria, but likely not by a significant amount relative to other key destination markets.
Australia, on the other hand, could see a big influx of students with dependants driven by India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. These are all countries which have demonstrated a strong appetite to bring dependants along in both the UK and Australia. Australia’s recent pro-immigration policy changes should bode well for the long-term growth of this market.
Canada’s PGWPP offers stability for international students and their families, making it a logical beneficiary of the UK’s policy shift. There’s a strong possibility that the affinity Nigerian and Indian students showed for bringing along dependants to the UK could shift to Canada next year. Nigeria and India accounted for over 70% of the dependants in the UK in 2023, and are two of the biggest source markets in Canada.
As we enter 2024, the interplay of policy changes, economic shifts, and student priorities will shape the landscape of student dependants. The true impact of these changes will be unveiled in the coming months, as countries respond to the evolving dynamics of international education and the needs of their student populations.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. The UK Government’s policy change takes effect January, 1, 2024. This policy shift only impacts students studying at the postgraduate level.
2. Dependants of international students in the US are granted F-2 visas. The F-2 visa is a derivative visa category, meaning the length of stay allowed will be equal to the main applicant’s.
3. Canadian dependants data not available.
4. Only applies for dependants over the age of 18. Children are not permitted to work F-2 visas.
