What’s Driving the Growth of International Education in the UK?

International students want efficient, cost-effective pathways to work in their field of study. This was one of the big take-home messages from HESA’s full 2021/22 data release at the close of January.

As international enrollment continues to rise in the UK, we wanted to get to the bottom of what’s driving this growth. We quickly discovered that the rising popularity of postgraduate programmes at UK universities is at the heart of this trend.

But what causes an international student to prefer the UK to one of the world’s other top destinations when pursuing their master’s? How does the balance between undergraduate and postgraduate enrollment impact institutions in the UK? And which countries are driving the growth that could shape the future of British international education? We tackle it all in today’s ApplyInsights.

An Upswing in Postgraduate Demand

The nearly 75,000 additional international students hosted at UK universities in 2021/22 were largely driven by the surge in demand for postgraduate courses.¹

International enrollment in the UK was up 12% in 2021/22, but postgraduate enrollment rose by over 28% during the same period. This marked the largest-ever single-year increase in either undergraduate or postgraduate enrollment among international students in the UK.

Let’s take a look at how undergraduate and postgraduate preferences have shifted in the UK since 2017/18:

From 2017/18 to 2021/22, the number of international students studying undergraduate programmes in the UK increased by 17%. During the same five-year stretch, postgraduate enrollment among non-UK students grew by 81%.

With a five-year growth rate nearly five times that of undergraduate programmes, postgraduate study is taking off in the UK. This phenomenal growth is compounded by the fact that undergraduate enrollment decreased in 2021/22, the first time that’s happened since 2014/15.

Exploring How UK Universities Can Reverse Undergraduate Trends

For the UK’s undergraduate market, it’s valuable to understand if the YOY enrollment decline was across the board, or if it was dragged down by specific subjects. From 2019/20 to 2021/22, 10 of the 26 subjects offered at UK universities experienced a drop-off in international enrollment.

The biggest thing that jumps out from this list is that seven of the largest declines came from non-STEM subjects. While it’s still unprecedented to see this many undergraduate subjects trending down, the declines by percentage are all modest, with the exception of Language and Area Studies.

This is good news for UK universities. Recovering the undergraduate market is realistic if institutions focus recruitment efforts on key subjects that have dipped in popularity. Design, Creative and Performing Arts; Engineering and Technology; and Social Sciences—three subjects which accounted for 28% of international undergraduate enrollments last year—are great places to start.

The other potential method to propel recovery in the undergraduate sector? Universities leaning into the growth of subjects growing in popularity.

Subjects Allied to Medicine, which is driven largely by Nursing, have taken off in the UK over the past three academic years, seeing a 31% increase in international enrollment during that time. Given the hot job market for this industry, we expect this growth to increase rapidly over the next five years.

Computing, Dentistry, and Business and Management (which accounts for nearly 30% of all international undergraduate enrollment) are also growing subject areas that UK schools should dedicate their recruitment efforts towards.

Stoking the small fire that is the growth of these subjects could be an integral part of preventing the gap between undergraduate and postgraduate enrollment from widening.

Postgraduate Enrollment Driving Long-Term Growth

The biggest risk to lowering the ceiling for postgraduate enrollment in the UK is the government altering the Graduate Route so it’s a less attractive post-grad work offering. There’s been a lot of speculation about possible policy tweaks as a result of the UK’s record migrant levels, which could impact the current growth trajectory.

But as currently constructed, the Graduate Route makes postgraduate study an attractive option for international students. Which countries lead the postgraduate charge in the UK? Let’s find out:

It comes as no surprise that India and China top the list of countries with the highest volumes of postgraduate enrollment. But as we start to think about which markets will shape the future of international education in the UK, growth is king.

Countries which are enrolling in the UK’s fastest-growing study level at the highest rate are excellent candidates for where we could see a big influx of students come from over the next decade.

Comparing the top 10 countries of postgraduate students in the UK by volume vs. growth teaches us a few things:

Here to Stay

These are the countries which already compose a significant chunk of the UK’s international student population and are primed for long-term growth. There were five source markets which appeared in both the top 10 international source markets rankings for volume and growth in 2021/22.

India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand have established and growing interest in the UK’s most popular level of study in 2021/22. This combination of enrolled students and surging interest is likely to make these markets key players in the development of international education in the UK moving forward.

Nigeria is in an exciting position within this group. Nigeria holds the number three spot on the volume rankings and the second-highest spot on the growth rankings for postgraduate enrollment. We expect Nigeria to overtake China as the second-largest source market for international education in the UK within the next five years.

Next Up

This group of source markets is brimming with potential. While many of these nations may find themselves well outside the top 10 source market rankings by volume of postgraduate enrollment, that may not be the case for long.

There were five source markets that failed to crack the top 10 by volume but were featured in the 10 fastest-growing markets for postgraduate study in the UK. This group comprised Sri Lanka (+187%), Nepal (+128%), Ghana (+55%), Iran (+46%), and the United Arab Emirates (+34%).

Not only did these countries appear on the top 10 growth rankings for postgraduate enrollment, but they were also featured in the top 10 fastest-growing countries overall in 2021/22.

Sri Lanka and Nepal are taking off in multiple destination markets, including Canada, where Nepal ranked as the fastest-growing source market in 2022.

As we look to project who the next big players in international education could be in 2030, growth is a valuable indicator to help us make informed predictions. Several of these markets also have rising student-age populations which makes them great candidates for significant growth over the next few years

Taking a Step Back

As interest from several markets ramps up, there are a handful of source markets that are trending in the opposite direction.

In 2021/22, China, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea all found themselves within the top 20 countries ranked by volume of postgraduate enrollments, but posted a growth rate of under 6%. For South Korea and Saudi Arabia particularly, their place among the UK’s largest source markets is fading fast.

Questions loom large over China. The UK’s formerly dominant top source market has seen enrollment growth slow dating back to before the pandemic.

China’s strict domestic COVID-19 protocols have severely limited its growth potential relative to the rest of the world. The next 12 months will be telling for whether recent travel restrictions lifting will propel China back to the top, or if this is a trend that will stick long-term.

While the large populations of these countries will prevent enrollment numbers from falling too fast, the lack of growth is not encouraging when it comes to the long-term outlook of their development in the UK. Look for emerging markets in the “Next Up” grouping to trade places with some of these markets over the next several years.

The Graduate Route and Comparisons to Other Markets

The Graduate Route opened the doors for any international student in the UK to live and work in the UK for two years following the completion of their degree. A fair question that many students in cost-conscious markets began to raise was, “What is the fastest and least expensive pathway toward postgraduate work available?”

Demand soared for UK postgraduate streams as short master’s programmes emerged as very attractive vehicles for students to find work in their field of study.

A UK master’s programme takes half the time to complete compared to similar postgraduate programs in other top destination markets. Master’s programmes in the UK can be completed in as little as 10 months, whereas the majority of postgraduate programmes in the US and Canada last up to two years.

For students who already hold an undergraduate degree and are looking for avenues to work opportunities, the UK provides a range of short and budget-friendly postgraduate programs that allow students to start working faster than in any other market.

Looking Forward

Short, affordable pathways to postgraduate work opportunities. That’s what lies at the heart of what today’s international student is looking for. In 2022, the UK became one of the most attractive destinations for prospective postgraduate students.

The combined offering of short, budget-friendly master’s programmes that open doors for postgraduate work and eventual immigration makes the UK very hard to resist. As word of the Graduate Route spreads and more undergraduate degree holders target the UK as a study abroad destination, UK universities would be wise to improve their capacity for very valuable international students.

At ApplyInsights, we’ll be watching how these trends impact undergraduate students in the UK, international student mobility within the UK, and much more throughout the year. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter below for the latest commentary on international education.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of HESA, except where noted.